1. PPR 2008:03 081023

2. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

3. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Figure 4. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

6. Figure 5. Policy rates and three-month interbank rates in the USA and Sweden Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

7. Figure 6. Stock market movements Index, 04.01.99 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin

8. Figure 7. GDP abroad TCW-weighted, annual percentage points Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

9. Figure 8. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel, future price Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

10. Figure 9. Monetary policy in the euro area and the USA Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

11. Figure 10. GDP for the United States and the euro area Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

12. Figure 11. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

13. Figure 12. Exchange rate movements SEK per euro Source: Reuters EcoWin

14. Figure 13. TCW exchange rate Index, 18.11.92=100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

15. Figure 14. Export Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

16. Figure 15. Household’s disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

17. Figure 16. Fixed gross investment Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

18. Figure 17. General government net lending Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

19. Figure 18. Number of hours worked Index, quarter 1 2000 =100, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

20. Figure 19. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

21. Figure 20. Unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

22. Figure 21. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

23. Figure 22. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

24. Figure 23. Employment rate Employment as a percentage of the population,16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

25. Figure 24. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

26. Figure 25. CPI, CPIF and CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

27. Figure 26. CPI Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

28. Figure 27. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

29. Figure 28. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

30. Figure 29. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

31. Figure 30. The CPIF, outcome and forecasts on different occasions Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note: Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast

32. Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

33. Table 2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

34. Table 3. Key figures, annual average Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis. * Percentage of labor force

35. Table 4. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

36. Figure 31. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

37. Figure 32. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

38. Figure 33. Labour market gap Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

39. Figure 34. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

40. Figure 35. Real interest rate Per cent Source: the Riksbank

41. Figure 36. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

42. Figure 37. TCW exchange rate Index Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

43. Figure 38. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

44. Figure 39. Labour market gap Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

45. Figure 40. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

46. Figure 41. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

47. Figure 42. Real interest rate Per cent Source: The Riksbank

48. Figure 43. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

49. Figure 44. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

50. Figure 45. Real interest rate Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

51. Figure 46. Stock market movements and implied volatility Index, 1 January 1990=1 and per cent Sources: Standard & Poor's and Chicago Board Options Exchange

52. Figure 47. Two-year interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note: Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.

53. Figure. 48 Basis-spread and TED-spread in Sweden Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

54. Figure 49. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

55. Figure 50. Exchange rates SEK per Euro and dollar Source: Reuters EcoWin

56. Figure 51. Interest rates in Sweden Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

57. Figure 52. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

58. Figure 53. Money supply Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

59. Figure 54. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of commerce

60. Figure 55. Economic indicators in the euro area Index, December 2005 = 100, respective annual percentage change Sources: European Commission and OECD

61. Figure 56. Konsumentpriser CPI Sources: Bureau of Labour Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics

62. Figure 57. CPI excluding energy and food Annual percentage change Source: OECD

63. Figure 58. HICP for the Euro area Annual percentage change Source: Eurostat

64. Figure 59. Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted net figures, monthly observations Source: National Institute of Economic Research

65. Figure 60. Purchasing managers’ index and National Institute of Economic Research’s confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry Seasonally-adjusted index and net figures Sources: Swedbank and National Institute of Economic Research

66. Figure 61. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

67. Figure 62. Household financial wealth and saving Per cent of disposable income Source: Statistics Sweden

68. Figure 63. Households expectations for the future Net figures Source: National Institute of Economic Research

69. Figure 64. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

70. Figure 65. Foreign trade with goods and fixed prices Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving averages.

71. Figure 66. Number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

72. Figure 67. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector Balance and annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economics research and Statistics Sweden

73. Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data Source: National Institute of Economic Research

74. Figure 69. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Swedish Public Employment Service

75. Figure 70. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

76. Figure 71. Full utilisation of companies' resources, private service industries Proportion of companies Source: National Institute of Economic Research

77. Figure 72. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank. Note. Three-month moving average.

78. Figure 73. Wages Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

79. Figure 74. Actual inflation (CPI) and households' and companies' expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change Source: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

80. Figure 75. The difference between nominal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points Sources: The Riksbank

81. Figure 76. Different agents' expectation of inflation one, two and five years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

82. Figure 77. Different agents' expectation of inflation two years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

83. Figure 78. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note: The weight of CPI of the respective components is given in brackets.

84. Figure 79. Commodity prices USD, index Source: The Economist

85. Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

86. Figure R1. Financial balance, forecasts Per cent of GDP Sources: Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

87. Figure R2. Slower price increases Balance Source: The Riksbank

88. Table A1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

89. Table A2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

90. Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average Per cent, unless otherwise specified * Per cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

91. Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

92. Table A5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

93. Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated * Per cent of labour force Source: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

94. Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated, calendar-adjusted data * Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update in September 2008 is stated in parenthesis.

95. Table A8. Scenario with intensified effects of the credit crisis, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.

96. Table A9. Scenario with weaker krona, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.

97. Table A10. Scenario with continued high inflation, annual average Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets.