Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – September 2011 Sustainable Energy for All A Perspective from GEA

UN General Assembly resolution 65/ Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

 Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Towards a more Sustainable Future

#4 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

 Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Towards a more Sustainable Future

# EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Nuclear phase-out (choice)

# EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 ” Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

MJ/US$ GEA-Efficiency MJ/US$ GEA-Efficiency -1.7% pa -1.0% pa -1.2% pa -2.2% pa -3.3% pa -2.1% pa Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Intensities

Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy) Final Energy Transformations

 Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies Towards a more Sustainable Future

#13 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

#14 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 The Way Forward ● ●Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers ● ●Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country ● ●Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment ● ●Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed ● ●Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 Integrated Solutions ● ●Political – links to global debates (MDGs, UNFCCC, WTO, RIO + 20, etc.) ● ●Sectoral – links to policies in other sectors are fundamental ● ●Geography - urban, provincial, regional, national linkages are necessary ● ●People - education, information and incentives for lifestyle changes ● ●Implementation - strong institutions (national and international) and facilitating mechanisms