1. © OECD/IEA 2010 A better energy future Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist 19 September 2011

2. © OECD/IEA 2011 Outlook for world energy demand Without major policy change, we will face three major challenges: energy security, energy access and climate change 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 198019902000201020202030 Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Oil

3. © OECD/IEA 2011 People without access to modern energy Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires average annual investment of $48 billion 0 1 billion 2 billion 3 billion 2009 2030 Other Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa People without access to electricity People without access to clean cooking facilities

4. © OECD/IEA 2011 Investment in energy access, 2009 Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires annual investment to increase by more than five-times – private sector needs to grow the most 14% 34% 30% 22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance Multilateral organisations Developing country governments Private sector finance Total = $9.1 billion

5. © OECD/IEA 2011 Implications of achieving universal modern energy access Universal modern energy access does not have any significant impact on energy or climate security 0 10 20 30 40 0 5 10 15 20 World energy demand 2030 World energy demand in the central scenario World CO 2 emissions 2030 World CO 2 emissions in the central scenario (right axis) Additional CO 2 emissions in the Energy for All Case (right axis) 0.7% Additional energy demand in the Energy for All Case 1.1%

6. © OECD/IEA 2011 Global outlook for CO 2 emissions Gigatonnes 20 25 30 35 40 199020002020 Central Scenario +3.5°C 20102030 To move towards 2°C we need modern renewables to more than double and energy intensity to be reduced by 40% by 2030 2°C Scenario

7. © OECD/IEA 2011 Sustainable Energy for All Increase energy access  Universal access is achievable by 2030 – financing is key To support a move to a CO 2 path consistent with 2ºC  More than double the use of modern renewables by 2030  Reduce energy intensity by 40% by 2030 Rio+20 is a unique opportunity to set goals that help the world achieve …a better energy future