1. Energy Prospects in the Mediterranean Region Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal Energy Prospects in the Mediterranean Region Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal Geneva, 31 st May 2013

2. CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND SEVERAL CHALLENGES AHEAD 7% of world population, 500 million people, 90 million more by 2030, nearly all in the South 10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a. average growth to 2030 8% of world’s primary energy demand Important energy corridor / energy hub Several challenges calling for innovative energy strategies Security of supply concerns Financial crisis and important socio-political changes Particular vulnerability to climate change and its impacts

3. ENERGY IN THE SMCS – COMMON DRIVERS AND CHALLENGES AND ALSO DISPARITIES Common High demographic development and rapid urbanisation around the littoral High economic growth Access to energy almost of all, efforts are still needed Energy driver to the socio-economic development Increasing climate change concerns and effects Important disparities S/S and also S/N Availability of conventional energy resources From exporting to totally importing countries Large disparities with NMCs

4. DISPARITIES, INTERDEPENDENCY AND CONVERGENCE TENDENCY TPES / capita (toe/cap) CO 2 / capita (tCO 2 /cap)

5. MEP 2011 - KEY MESSAGES

6. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option: Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to 2030. CO 2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up from 2200Mt currently. Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of additional capacity needed. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix and natural gas will overtake oil. High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited

7. Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head. Electricity demand to multiply by 3 Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double. HIGH CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH

8. THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE PATH Under a Proactive Scenario: Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%) Overall demand and CO 2 emissions just grow 20% Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed 4 500 6 500 8 500 10 500 12 500 700 800 900 1 000 1 100 1 200 1 300 1 400 1 500 19902000201020202030 GDP(billion dollars (ppps 2005)) Mtoe Proactive Scenario Conservative Scenario GDP -12% MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK,by Scenarios

9. ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%) Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an alternative scenario RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today

10. HEAVY RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS WILL ENDURE Source: OME

11. GAS ERA AND OIL PEAK Export capacity would substantially increase under the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.

12. Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030. MEDITERRANEAN ELECTRICITY BOOM AHEAD

13. 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario. ADDITIONAL GENERATION CAPACITY NEEDED IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 16% 14% 5% 17% 6% 5% 49% 50% 40% 3% 6% 18% 14% 15% 2% 13% 28% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 120 GW321 GW289 GW GW Non-hydro Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 2009 2030 PS 2030 CS

14. DIFFERENT DECOUPLING PATTERNS Energy intensity is decreasing leading to a decoupling of GDP and energy demand. 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 19902000201020202030 toe/thousand US$ - - Med PSEnergy Intensity Med CSEnergy Intensity - - Med PSElectricity intensity Med CS Electricity intensity 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.23 0.28 KWh/thousandUS$ 14 Electricity intensity could continue increasing.

15. MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY 10% of the regional energy consumption can be saved through energy efficiency measures by 2030. -10% 15

16. OUTLOOK FOR CO 2 EMISSIONS In the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions would increase +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030. Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less). 16

17. TO CONCLUDE – COMMON VISION AND INNOVATIVE & ADAPTED SOLUTIONS For a successful energy transition targeted by all Regional cooperation is a must, common vision but adapted strategies, policies and measures are needed Considering its high impacts, EE should be given first priority. RE are also very much needed An alternative path: possible but pending on actions and means allowing removal of the existing barriers Demonstration, capacity building, technology transfer, best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes … All energy sources are needed RDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role in promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth and job creation (very important) Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelated and important for the sustainable development in the region

18. THE WAY FORWARD Mediterranean countries have a common interest in preparing together their long-term future No unique or standard solution, but sustainability implies: Promotion of energy efficiency energy sobriety Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side and demand side - energy sobriety fossil fuels Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels Promotion of RE Promotion of RE and in particular solar energy Strengthening of the electric grid S/SS/N to Strengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N to integrate new plants Technology transfer capacity building Technology transfer and capacity building

19. A COMMON BOOK OME MEDGRID www.ome.org

20. Thank you for your attention Dr. Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL houda.allal@ome.org Kuraymat CSP plant, Egypt