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The Energy Report © Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF Connecting the grid with RES Dr Stephan Singer Director Global Energy Policy WWF Brussels, Feb 2013
The Energy Report 1. Limit demand for energy through conservation and efficiencies 2. Use renewable energy to fill remaining demand The Scenario
The Energy Report Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Bio: Crops Bio: Comp.Fellings Bio: Resid. & Waste Geothermal Hydropower CSP PV Wave & Tidal Wind: Off-shore Wind: On-shore 100% Renewable Electricity Renewable electricity will be so abundant that options will compete against each other even before 2050
The Energy Report Global wind power growth Source: REN 21, 2012
The Energy Report Global PV growth Source: REN 21, 2012
The Energy Report Global CSP growth Source: REN 21, 2012
Annual RES investments Source: PEW, BNEF, 2012
Wind power Growth in 2012 I
Wind power Growth in 2012 II
RES share of electricity Source: REN 21, 2012
Projected ‘BAU’ development for clean energy: 10- fold capacity increase by 2030 worldwide – A ‘Policy’ scenario would grow RES further GW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2011
The Energy Report Source: Siemens 2011
The Energy Report Recent Renewable cost developments Source: IPCC, 2011
The Energy Report 71% of all new power capacity in EU in 2011 was RES, mainly wind and solar. Very similar in 2012 In 2010 worldwide, new RES was 84 GW capacity, FF and nuclear were 97 GW. Wind and solar alone were 35% of all new power capacity and 30% of all new power supply. In 2011, India grew solar by 700%, Germany added 8 GW PV China added 12 GW wind in 2011 surpassing US RES investments overtaking FF in 2010: $US 233 bln for RES power (about 190 bln mainly wind and solar) vs $US 219 bln in FF capacity Wind grew from 0.3 to 240 GW between 1985 and early 2012. Reason: Load factors grew from 20% to 34% and Levelised Cost of Electricity of onshore wind has fallen by 75% between 1985 and 2011 to €52/MWh – CCGT trails at €46/MWh. Watch this new reality Source: Bloomberg NEF various 2010, 2011, 2012; REN 21, 2011
Source: Bloomberg NEF, 2011 Key renewables projected to much further decrease costs
Grids must be included from the very beginning for RES projects and wider planning! Things to watch and to learn I An integrated national and regional energy policy “No one is an island” TSO and DSO must be at the policy development table Implement not domestic capacity targets (GW) but consumption targets (GWh) Include electrification of transport into grid planning/development Preferred grid access for RES Do not make grid planning limited to short-term RES targets, they last 50 years Prepare for 100% RES in electricity eventually Grid links must be full part of and synchronised with planning RES projects Grid development and enhancement needs technical and political load and grid management – TSO coordination across borders/regions Wherever possible free (!) cross-regional and cross-border connections are essential for cost-effectiveness
Some technologies are more ‘variable’ than others (PV/wind) Storage is less of an problem with interconnections (somewhere……) Smart grid technologies are much more than just ‘metering’…… Low flexibility power systems (nuclear, coal) stand in way structurally Good grid planning & early integration will cost less than 5% of overall RES project development Bad grid planning & integration may cost >20% Overall, a new clean energy system based on RES (even if not 100%) will need to move away from our central base-load system to an highly efficient and IT-led dispatchable-load-on-demand system Grids must be included from the very beginning for RES projects and wider planning! Things to watch and to learn II
The Energy Report Visit us for full report at: www.panda.org/energyreport A world powered by 100% renewable, sustainable energy by mid-century In all of our hands - policy- makers, investors, corporate leaders, communities and individuals. Stop fossil fuel pollution; save money; address climate change; improve health; no nuclear risks; new jobs; innovation; protect nature Extensive electrification of transport; enhanced energy conservation; smart grids; sustainable energy for all Conserving energy & reducing demand; electrification; equity; investment; land/water/sea-use implications; governance; lifestyle choices - behaviour changes & public attitudes; innovation and R&D A VISION A SCENARIO SOLUTIONS CHALLENGES BENEFITS
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