1. Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011 Sustainable Energy for All A Perspective from GEA

3.  Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

4.  Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

5. #5 Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.6 Middle class: 1.6 Rich: 1.2 Rich: 1.2 3.3 2.8 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

6. #6 Alternative Access Policies 0,0 0,6 1,2 1,8 2,4 3,0 3,6 4,2 Base 2005No new policies 203050% Fuel Subsidy 2030 Microfinance @15% only 2030 Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy 2030 Population in Billions Solid Fuel Users Sub-Saharan AfricaSolid Fuel Users Pacific AsiaSolid Fuel Users South Asia Liquid Fuel Users Sub-Saharan AfricaLiquid Fuel Users Pacific AsiaLiquid Fuel Users South Asia Improved Acess to Modern Fuels Solid Fuel Users

7. 2030 Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Reduction of Energy Intensity by 40% ● ●Increase of Renewable Share to 30% Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

8. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 2030 Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

9. #9 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy

10. #10 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy Efficiency – Counterfactual Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

11. #11 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

12. #12 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Nuclear phase-out (choice)

13. #13 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 ” Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

14. 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency -1.7% pa -1.0% pa -1.2% pa -2.2% pa -3.3% pa -2.1% pa Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Intensities

15. Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy) Final Energy Transformations

16.  Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

17. #17 19001950200020502100 Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 IPCC Category I GEA - Efficiency Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc Peak by 2020 reductions of 35-75% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term Global Carbon Emissions

18.  Energy is a crucial development goal for responding to challenges in the 21st century  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

19. #19 Global Energy Investments Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D [billion US$2005] Markets Formation [billion US$2005] Present Investments [billion US$2005] Investment for SE4All [billion US$2005] Investment GEA Range [billion US$2005] 2010 2010 - 2030 Efficiency>> 8~ 5300258 - 365 2 121 - 365 Renewables> 12~ 20200259 - 406154 - 631 Access< 1 ~ 936 - 41 Total> 50< 15012501260 - 16801120 - 1770