1. Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
Dr. Robert K. Dixon

2. Economic Development: Energy Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.
Source: IEA WEO

3. Environmental Protection: Global CO2 Emissions Increasing
China overtakes US in CO2 emissions in 2007
Source: IEA WEO

4. Imbalance Between Oil Demand & Reserves
Oil Reserves 3% 7%
25%
Updated July Source: International Energy Annual 2003 (EIA). Canada’s reserves include tar sands.
Note United States’ oil resource versus its use.

5. Energy Technology Perspectives Publication 2008
How to achieve sustainable energy future
Short and medium term technology policy needs
Special attention for technology roadmaps
Scenario analysis
Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario
Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT)
Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE)

6. ACT Scenarios Energy CO2 emissions in 2050 reduced to 2005 level
Revision of ACT as published in ETP2006
Implies a significantly adjusted energy system

7. Blue Scenarios -50% energy related CO2 in 2050, compared to 2005
Consistent with 450 ppm (depending on post-2050 emissions)
Blue is only possible with global participation
Implies completely different energy system

8. A New Energy Revolution: Reducing Energy Related CO2 Emissions
Baseline Emissions 62 Gt
BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt

9. Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050
An Energy Revolution

10. Cost of Emissions Reductions
Technology
Pessimism
Optimism
To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t, possibly even up to USD 500/t CO2

11. Key Technology Options (Roadmaps) 87% of emissions reduction in BLUE Map
Supply side
CCS power generation
Coal – IGCC
Coal – USCSC
Nuclear III + IV
Solar – PV
Solar – CSP
Wind
Biomass – IGCC & co-combustion
2nd generation biofuels
Demand side
Energy efficiency in buildings
Energy efficient motor systems
Efficient ICEs
Heat pumps
Plug-ins and electric vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles
Industrial CCS
Solar heating

12. Roadmaps – Example CCS 10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map

13. Power Generation Mix
46%
Renewables

14. CO2 Capture and Storage Use in BLUE Map

15. Primary Energy Demand Important supply security benefits
Transport sector accounts for 78% of oil savings

16. Transport Sector Market Share in 2050, by Scenario and Technology

17. LDV Technology Costs

18. Transport Sector Emissions Reductions

19. Public Sector Energy R&D in OECD Countries – USD 10 bln/yr

20. Conclusions Deep emission cuts are technically achievable
A global energy technology revolution is needed
Action is urgent
Barriers: financing needs; slow capital stock turnover; timeliness of technology development

21. Global Environment Facility
Financial mechanism of UNFCCC and other global environment conventions
Six focal areas
climate change, biodiversity, land degradation, international waters, ozone deletion, persistent organic pollutants
10 GEF agencies
WB, UNDP, UNEP, UNIDO, IFAD, FAO, RDBs
Since 1991, GEF has allocated over $7b and leveraged $25b in co-financing.

22. Thank You !