1. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event “Global Challenges toward Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD)” Nairobi, Kenya, November 8, 2006 P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India (shukla@iimahd.ernet.in) Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

2. Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned?  Climate change is a derivative problem of development  Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities  Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive & expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century  Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and climate change have many common elements, and aligning these would deliver co-benefits

3. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Aligning Development and Climate by Shifting the Frontier Overcoming Conflict by Shifting the “frontier” though: Innovations in technology & institutions Targeted technology innovations, investment and deployment Aligning diverse interests of multiple stakeholder Sequence of policies and measures to accrue co-benefits International and regional cooperation National Development Targets Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator Climate Goal Technology & Institutional Innovations; Co-benefits

4. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies MDG and global targetsIndia’s National plan targetsInterface with Climate Change Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people with income below $1 a day and those who suffer from hunger Double the per capita income by 2012 Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012 Contain population growth to 16.2% between 2001-2011 Income effect would enhance choices for cleaner fuels and adaptive capacity Reduce GHG Emissions due to lower population Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Targets: Integrate SD principles in country policies/ programs to reverse loss of environmental resources Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001) Sustained access to potable drinking water to all villages by 2007 Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012 via decentralized sources Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012 Enhanced sink capacity, reduced GHG and local emissions; lower fossil imports; reduced pressure on land, resources and ecosystems Higher adaptive capacity to from enhanced supply of water, health & education in rural areas MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development

5. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Influencing Energy Transitions Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 19521960197019801990 2001 Traditional Biomass Hydro Coal Oil Gas Nuclear How to transit to Modern Biomass? Food Security? Domestic Resource: +ve Direct Employment: +ve Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve Geopolitical Risk: High Foreign Exchange: -ve Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Safety? Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits En. Security: +Ve

6. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030 $ Billion % GDP Energy60 Exa Joule3210.87 CO 2 Equiv.5.1 Billion Ton280.08 SO 2 50 Million Ton100.03 Total3590.98 South-Asia Energy Cooperation Spillover Benefits: 16 MW additional Hydropower Flood control Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries Integrated South-Asia Energy Market

7. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies CO 2 Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms Cumulative CO 2 not Emitted: 140 million ton 1.10 0.90 0.70 0.50 1994 2000 1992 1996 1990 1998 Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms Fossil Electricity with Reforms Total Electricity w/o Reforms Total Electricity with Reforms Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh 2001 Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity

8. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies More number of days with >200 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm rainfall Less number of days with >200 mm rainfall Present Climate Future Climate Probability of Occurrence Light and spread-over rain Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with > 200mm rainfall Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability Monsoon Rainfall (2050) Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure

9. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Conclusions  Opportunities to mainstream climate concerns in development actions exist everywhere; and more so in developing countries.  Climate centric actions could miss opportunities which may deliver development and climate co-benefits.  Pathways to “Low Carbon” and “Climate Resistant” societies are best found if viewed through the sustainability lens.  Cost-effective transition to Low Carbon Society is not automatic. It would require crafting strategies that align development and climate policies and actions through sustainability goals.