Decentralized Planning and Adaptation to Drought in Rural Northeast Brazil: An Application of GIS and Participatory Appraisal toward Transparent Governance Timothy J. Finan (University of Arizona) Donald R. Nelson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

Outline How Does Governance Shape Adaptation Ceará: the Case Study Patron-Client Relations as Bad Governance MAPLAN Subversive Tactics Challenges to Change in Governance

Definitions Vulnerability The susceptibility to disturbances determined by exposure to perturbations, sensitivity to perturbations, and the capacity to adapt Adaptation The decision-making process and the set of actions undertaken to maintain the capacity to deal with current or future predicted change

4 Articulation of scale 4 Distribution of impacts 4 Multidimensionality of factors 4 Need for local participation The Capacity to Adapt: Common Characteristics

How Does Governance Affect Adaptation? (positive) 4 Public investment in vulnerability reduction 4 Mobilization of local resources/support of private forms of adaptation 4 Creation of a shared vision, participatory decision making 4 Representation of the most vulnerable: social justice 4 Monitoring and evaluation of change and policies (accountability/transparency)

A Case Study from Northeast Brazil the State of Ceará 4 Population: 8 million, 30% rural 4 46% economically active in agriculture, BUT agriculture GDP is 6% 4 Rural population subsistence rainfed farmers (75% beneath the WB poverty line)

Annual Precipitation for six municípios

Seasonal and Monthly Precipitation Average monthly rain for Ceará (mm) Observed March rainfall Parambu (mm)

Governance in Ceará 6 Patron-client relations as the fundamental form of social organization and resources distribution 6 Domination of the local political elite 6 Little sense of rights of citizenship 6 Prefeitos (as), Prefeituras, Vereadores, Municípios 6 PATRONAGE AND DROUGHT CRISIS MANAGEMENT: THE INDUSTRY OF DROUGHT 6 Ironic Adaptation: people pray for drought

Ironic adaptation “Por aqui nós rezamos pela seca” Anonymous - Boa Viagem, Ceará 2001

Adaptation to Drought Nelson and Finan, in revision

Access to Water Rainwater cisterns Water delivery

Public works projects Road clearing Food distribution

NON-ADAPTIVE PATRONAGE

Participatory mapping for public planning Co-opting the paradigm shift Restructure the process of development and emergency relief planning in Ceará through the engagement of civil society Increases transparency and accountability in the planning process Encourages communication between civil society and the public sector

Methodology Participatory GIS Map vulnerabilities and assets Data generated by participants Agenda set by participants Drought as a reality; what is “normal”? Emergency and long-term plans Government obligation

Outputs Maps are: Means to an end Legitimate representation of reality Dynamic The final goal The only source of information Finished products Maps are not:

Results More equitable resource distribution Local ownership of outputs Local ownership of process New relationships between civil society and the government

Co-existing with the semi-arid

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE ARTICULATION OF SCALES LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

MAPLAN: SUBVERSIVE TACTICS 3 OBJECTIVITY: THE LEGITIMIZATION OF SCIENCE IN THE ASSESSMENT PHASE 3 PARTICIPATION: CO-OPTING THE DISCOURSE 3 DECENTRALIZATION: PROVIDING THE MEANS 3 LOCAL PLANNING: REVERSING THE FLOW 3 TRANSPARENCY: THE VISUALITY OF MAPS 3 ACCOUNTABILITY: MOVING FROM ‘RED’ TO ‘GREEN’

MAPLAN: NEXT STEPS 4INSTITUTIONALIZATION 4LOCAL LEVEL CAPACITY- BUILDING 4COMMUNITY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT 4WWW.PROJETOMAPLAN.COM