1. Social Analysis Workshop on Country Analytical Work June 19, 2001 Anis Ahmad Dani World Bank, Social Development Department

2. 2 Country level Social Analysis The intended outcome of social analysis is to generate a body of knowledge that increases the ability of countries to reduce poverty and promote social cohesion by making development more inclusive and sustainable. Focus on: Interaction between the socio-cultural and institutional context and the proposed reform agenda Impacts of the reforms on stakeholders, and impacts of stakeholder interests and influence on the reforms Social group and corporate interests as stakeholders in development processes, acknowledging competing stakeholder interests

3. 3 Historically social analysis has focused on investment projects Social analysis at the project level: One-third of projects in the past three years had some form of social assessment One-third of the social assessments also deal with social safeguards Stand alone safeguard assessments – i nvoluntary resettlement, indigenous peoples, physical cultural property – undertaken for 10-15% of projects Project level social analysis has generated a body of knowledge that informs macro analysis

4. 4 Strategy for scaling up Social Analysis to Macro Level Adaptation of repertoire of tools & techniques to macro level (e.g., Stakeholder Analysis, Institutional & Organizational Analysis, Participation Analysis; but also Gender Analysis, Beneficiary Assessment, Social Capital Assessment Tool, Participatory Poverty Assessment) Development of new tools & instruments ( e.g. conflict analysis, scenario analysis, process mapping techniques) Establishment of partnerships with other Networks to coordinate social analysis with related ESW

5. 5 Social Analysis at Macro Level Building blocks Social Impact Analysis Safeguard Assessment Institutional & Organizational Analysis Participation Analysis Social context matters Framework for action Process SD Outcomes Medium & long-term

6. 6 (1) Social Impact Analysis SIA refers to the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a special focus on the vulnerable and the poor Includes analysis of macroeconomic, structural and sectoral reforms ex-ante, during implementation, and ex-post

7. 7 Focus of SIA Social diversity Stakeholder interests Likely impacts on stakeholders Stakeholder effects on the reform program Determinants & dynamics of poverty Impacts on livelihood systems Gender impacts Access to goods and services Social cohesion / social tensions Social risks Monitoring outcomes & evaluating impacts

8. 8 Conflict Analysis (where necessary) The World Bank ’ s analytical work in the area of conflict applies to countries vulnerable to conflict, in conflict, or in transition from conflict. The analysis increases understanding of root causes, catalysts and conflict indicators focuses not only on war/conflict affected groups but also on the environmental causes and consequences of conflict assesses the interaction of poverty reduction activities and conflict assesses the diversion of public resources from development purposes to military and other expenditures incurred in waging war

9. 9 (2) Safeguards Assessment Traditionally conducted as part of project preparation to design: Resettlement Action Plans Indigenous Peoples Developments With Sector Investment Loans, emphasis shifted to developing a Policy Framework Current emphasis analogous to fiduciary assessments is aimed at Assessment and harmonization of national safeguard policies upstream capacity building among regulatory bodies and implementing agencies Client certification

10. 10 (3) Institutional & Organizational Analysis A repertoire of techniques to assess the government ’ s organizational and institutional capacity to deliver and target its programs Analysis of preconditions for structural transformation and the likely impact of stakeholder interests and capacities on the proposed reform program. The first phase has focused on capacity within the government; phases 2 and 3 will focus on the private sector and societal organizations, respectively. The repertoire contains four main techniques: static mapping, dynamic mapping, mapping of constraints and identification of mechanisms of change.

11. 11 (3) Inst. & Org. Analysis Static mapping focuses on formal rules, levels and functions of the executive, legislature and judiciary and the organizational structures of a country Dynamic mapping examines the convergence between formal and informal rules of the game by mapping flows of money, information and people to assess: organizational stakeholders as interest groups predictability, transparency and efficiency of government Mapping of constraints identifies the weak points in the implementation chain, and assesses processes need to be more efficient, and which need fundamental change. Analysis of mechanisms of change allows changes in rules and processes, bringing stakeholders into new relationships of coordination and accountability in order to improve outcomes.

12. 12 (4) Participation Analysis Country assessment of enabling environment for civic engagement and community driven development Participatory public expenditure management Budget formulation & analysis Expenditure monitoring & tracking Monitoring of public service delivery through Citizens Report Card on Pro-Poor Services

13. 13 Process of Macro social analysis An analysis of the social dimensions of development should inform the development of country strategies and programs the Bank ’ s core diagnostic ESW, CASs, and lending operations Macro social analysis may be undertaken as a stand-alone ESW or its components may be integrated with other analytical work The nature of the social analysis will depend on the country context and will generally be laid out in the poverty reduction strategy or in the CAS

14. 14 Elements of good practice Multi-dimensional approach focusing on social inclusion, security and empowerment Uses both quantitative and qualitative methods Integrates poverty, gender, environmental and institutional concerns relevant to reform program Is undertaken by the government and/or national research institutions or, at a minimum, involves collaboration with national social scientists Utilizes a participatory process for analysis and validation of results

15. 15 Some elements of toolkit Stakeholder analysis Gender analysis Conflict analysis, as needed Participatory poverty assessment Beneficiary assessment Social capital assessment tool Scenario analysis

16. 16 Elements of toolkit contd. Static mapping Dynamic mapping Mapping of constraints Analysis of mechanisms of change Analysis of enabling environment for civic engagement and CDD Citizens Report Card on Pro-Poor Services