1. Root causes of food insecurity in Ethiopia
David Mogollon
07th December 2016 – Addis Abeba

2. Introduction Significant economic growth
Progress in poverty reduction and access to basic services
However, still high vulnerability, poverty, food insecurity, malnutrition.
Chronic food insecurity – humanitarian assistance.

3. Introduction Number of food aid beneficiaries
Humanitarian crisis every single year
Number of food aid beneficiaries

4. El Niño humanitarian crisis
El Niño phenomenon Drought
Assistance for: 10,2 M (HRD) + 7,9M (PSNP)
Significant resource mobilisation
Now Indian Ocean Dipole
Focus on the short-term.
Only drought?

5. Root causes: Demographic growth
High Demographic growth: 2,5%
Though fertility rate decreasing.
Demographic transition

6. Root causes: Demographic growth

7. Root causes: Demographic growth
Consequences:
Overpopulation
Pressure on resources
Access to land
Access to food
Access to water
Degradation Natural environment

8. Root causes: Demographic growth

9. Root causes: Climate factor

10. 2d Root causes: Climate factor
Overall rainfall: 848mm / year.
No insufficiency of water
95 smallholder farmers rain-fed agriculture
Water harvesting / storage capacities
Climate change
Less and more erratic rainfall
Different impact

11. Root causes: Agricultural sector
Agriculture: Livelihoods of 77% population.
Productivity
Dependence on rain-fed agri.
Land tenure
Shrinking land size
Access to finance
Access to technology
Inputs: seeds & fertilisers
Challenges

12. Root causes: wider economy trends
Past High economic growth: Agriculture
Limits absorption of rural population livelihoods
Manufacturing & services Job opportunities
GTP I
Private sector

13. Root causes: wider economy trends
Structural transformation will reduce share of agri. in employment
Starting at $600 of per capita GDP, a 2.5 % growth over 20 years may lead to a reduction in labor share of agriculture from 52% to 40%, thereby possibly reducing the relative exposure to shocks

14. Root causes: Focus Vulnerable areas
Overpopulation – Carrying capacity.
Limitations alternative livelihoods.
Dependent on Humanitarian and development assistance Basic services, food distribution
And then what…?
Are we part of the problem (incentives)?
Internal Mobility as a coping strategy

15. Supporting the transition
Demographic challenges:
Accelerate demographic transition
Carrying capacity and Internal mobility
Management of rural to urban transition
The climate factor:
Water harvesting and storage capacities
Adaptation to climate change

16. Supporting the transition
Performance of the agricultural sector:
Transforming the agricultural sector, land policy, access to land, land use & consolidation, etc.
Tackling land degradation
The wider economic aspects:
Prioritise job creation
Support industrial development
Enabling environment for private sector

17. Supporting the transition
In relation to vulnerable areas:
Analysis carrying capacity / economic potential
Building resilience Sustainability
Linking humanitarian and development
Facilitation Mobility: Mobil Safety Nets, social integration, skills, intermediation, etc.
Integrate early warning systems

18. Supporting the transition
Improve coordination among
partners at different levels