January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional.

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Presentation transcript:

January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University Design Build Institute of America

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 % Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > > > > >

GDP Percent Change (Real Dollars) %

CURRENT CONDITIONS

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-Mfg Mfg

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec = Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey

U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted Dec = 7.2 %

Housing Trends: New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Rt Scale) (000s)

Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

The Washington Economy

US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP

U.S. Washington Area GRP Change 3/ /01 (8)2.5 % 7/90 - 3/91 (8)0.2 % 7/ /82 (16)3.1 % 1/80 - 7/80 (6)2.3 % U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions

2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Business 38.9% Non-Local Business 11.8 % Federal 33.3% Procurement 15.4% Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0% Int’l 4.8% Other 7.0% Other Federal 17.9 % Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists

Annual Change in Jobs 1991 – 2007 Washington Metro Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thousands Avg = 46,600

Annual Job Change Washington Metro Area Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year s 46.6

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov. 07– Nov. 08 Thousands Washington + 31,100 Ranked by Total Jobs

Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA Last 12 Months Source: BLS and GMU Center for Regional Analysis %

Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Washington

15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2008 % U.S. 6.5 Data not seasonally adjustedSource: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4.4

Sales and Total Active Listings Washington MSA, December Each Year Listings Sales 1000s

Units Sold Percent Change By Subregion All Housing Types % NVA MSA DC SMD Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Price Index Trends U.S. and Washington Metro Area Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Conforming Loans Only

Average Sales Price All Housing Types Washington Metro Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis $ %/year

Area2007 Price2008 PriceChange% Change Dist. Of Columbia$537,400$543,500+ $6, % Arlington$559,000$539,300- $19, % Alexandria$502,900$471,200- $31, % Montgomery$550,200$503,900- $46, % Prince George’s$331,100$290,200- $40, % Fairfax$542,000$445,900- $96, % Loudoun$516,800$389,000- $127, % Prince William$395,000$257,900- $137, % MD SUBURBS$435,800$400,400- $35, % VA SUBURBS$488,300$373,200- $115, % METRO AREA$468,700$394,700- $74, % Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure Rates Q Foreclosures /10,000 Owner-Occupied Units Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates by County – Jan 08 & Jan 09 Foreclosures /10,000 units Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 2008 Jan 2009

Outlook

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

% Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP Washington U.S.