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Missouri Economic Update What to Expect in 2014 Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

Published byCarmel Barnett Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Missouri Economic Update What to Expect in 2014 Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Missouri Economic Update What to Expect in 2014 Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research

2 Economic Headwinds ACA Government Shutdown/Debt Slow growth in Europe Declining Labor Force (Demographics/Govt. Policies) Result—anemic economic growth and little to no employment growth

3 Real GDP (Millions of 2009$)

4 Quarter to Quarter Change in Real GDP

5

6 4.2 3.8 2.7 2.2

7 US Employment (Household Survey)

8 US Employment (Establishment Survey)

9 US Unemployment Rate

10 US Labor Force

11 1.33% 0.14%

12 Labor Force Participation Rate

13 Employment-Population Ratio

14 Index of Housing Prices (1980-2013)

15 Index of Real Housing Prices (1980-2013)

16 US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2009 to 2011)

17 US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2010 to 2011)

18 Missouri Business Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars

19 Missouri Real Estate Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars

20 Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)

21

22 Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR and CAGR Trends) 2.9% 1.7% 2%

23 Growth in Real Personal Income (Year over Year) 1.4%

24 Missouri Real Median Household Income

25 Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2011 to 2013)

26 Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2007Q4 to 2013)

27 City Level Housing Prices (1995:1 =100; 1995 constant $)

28 Missouri Unemployment Rate

29 Missouri-US Unemployment Rate Difference

30 Major City Unemployment Rates

31 Other Unemployment Rates

32 Current County Unemployment Rate July 2013

33 Labor Force in Missouri

34 1.6% 0.6% -0.9%

35 Year to Year Change in Missouri Labor Force

36 Missouri Employment Peak of 2,914,418 Dec. 2006 Trough of 2,755,850 Dec. 2009 2012 Avg 2,669,443 2013 Avg 2,695,072 Current 2,701,760 2013 = March 1998

37 Index of Missouri and US Employment (Jan 2000 = 100)

38 Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)

39 Percent Change in County Employment September 2011 to July 2013

40 Thank you! Questions?

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