1. Arlington Public Schools Superintendent’s Seminars
Changing Occupational and Workforce Requirements in Northern Virginia and the Washington Metropolitan Area
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University
April 24, 2012
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3. Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA 1900 - 2010
Thousands
Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analyis

4. Population in the Washington MSA
By Sub-State Area,
1000s
Northern VA
Suburban MD
D.C.
Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5. Growth in Jobs,
1000s
Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6. Washington Metro Area, 1950 – 2010 (Percent Share of Total)
Changing Job Patterns
Washington Metro Area, 1950 – 2010
(Percent Share of Total)
SERVICES
FEDERAL
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7. Share of Washington Area Economy 1970-2010
Northern Virginia
Suburban MD
% of GRP
D.C.
GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7

8. How Has the Washington Area Economy Performed Through This Business Cycle?
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9. Annual Job Change Washington MSA
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 2010 –2011
Washington + 32,600
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2011 – Feb 2012
Washington + 36,900
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12. Job Change by Sector 2010 – 2011 Washington MSA
Total = 32,600
(000s)
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

13. Job Change by Sector Feb 2011 – Feb 2012 Washington MSA
Total = 36,900
(000s)
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15. Job Change by Sector Feb 2011 – Feb 2012 Northern Virginia
Total 18,100
(000s)
Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16. Unemployment Rate 10.2 – DC 8.7 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.8 – MSA 4.7 - NVA
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17. 2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Non-Local
Business
12.0 %
Other Federal
10.7 %
Fed Wages & Salaries %
Total
Federal
39.8%
Procurement
19.1%
Local Serving
Activities
34.8%
Other 1.5%
Assn 1.8%
Health/Ed.
4.5%
Hosp. 2.1%
Int’l 3.5%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18. What is the Near-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy?
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change)NV
MSA SM DC
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19

20. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S.
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21. 2015 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy
Non-Local
Business
14.0 %
Other Federal
9.5 %
Fed Wages & Salaries %
Total
Federal
36.3%
Procurement
17.4%
Local Serving
Activities
34.2%
Int’l 3.5%
Hosp. 2.5%
Other 1.5%
Assn 2.0 %
Health/Ed.
6.0 %
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22. What is the Long-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy?
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23. Revised Washington Metropolitan Area
Growth Potential Summary: 2010 – 2030
(in billions of 2010 $s,jobs in thousands)
Indicator
2010
2030
Change
GRP Growth
$425 b
$774.8
82.3%
Net Job Growth
3,788.8
4,842.7
1,053.9/
27.8%
Replacement Job Growth
1,802.8
47.6%
HH Growth
2,068.1
2,622.3
554.2/
26.8%
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

24. Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Workforce Demand
Occupation Total Openings % of Total % Change Sales Occupations 163, Office Admin Support 158, Business and Financial 146, Management Occupations 123, Computer, Math and Sci 110, Food Prep & Serving 102, Totals 804,
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25. Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs 2010-2020
Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 79, Computer, Math and Sci 68, Sales & Related Occup. 50, Office Admin Support 48, Management Occupations 45, Health Care (all) 43, Education & Training 35, Totals 372,
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

26. Job Growth Potential in Northern Virginia, 2010 – 2020 Net New 1,509.1
(in thousands)
Type of Job
2010
2020
Change
Net New
1,509.1
1,812.4
303.3
Replacement
346.4
All Openings
649.7
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27. Major Sources of Workforce Demand
In Northern Virginia,
Occupation Total Openings % Change
Management analysts 23,
Retail sales persons 14,
Cashiers ,
Computer systems analysts 12,
General and operational managers 11,
Waiters and waitresses 11,
Computer software eng., applications 11,
Office clerks, general 11,
Computer software eng., systems 10,
Totals* ,
*These 9 occupations employed 249,324 workers in 2010.
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

28. Major Sources of Net New Jobs
In Northern Virginia,
Occupation Net New % Change
Management analysts ,
Computer software eng. applica ,
Computer software eng. systems 9, Computer systems analysts 7,
Network systems/data commun ,
Office clerks ,
Real estate agents ,
Accountants and auditors 5,
Network computer systems adm 5,
Totals* ,
These 9 occupations employed 205,119 workers in 2010.
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29. Educational Levels of Net New and Replacement Jobs, NVA: 2010 – 2020
(percent)
Educational Level
All Jobs
Net New
Replacement
Bachelor’s
or more
39.0%
256,687
49.0%
148,537
31.0%
108,150
Associate’s
4.0%
23,559
12,534
3.0%
11,025
HS/Voc. Ed. GED/OJT
55.0%
369,384
46.0%
142,191
63.0%
227,193
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30. Resident Labor Resources in
Northern Virginia,
Year Resident Labor Force Potential Resident
Population* Participation Rate Labor Resources
, x = ,731
,142, x = ,808
Change , ,077
Percent
*population of primary workforce age, year
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31. Workforce Development Issues
All local jurisdictions will need a greater number of workers than can be generated from within the existing population;
The changing skills requirements of future jobs will compound the magnitude of the shortage of workers needed to fill future local jobs;
Upskilling the existing workforce and increasing labor force participation at all ages; and,
Increasing high school graduation rates and retaining and redeploying older workers.
Implications
GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32. cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis32