1. U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update 2015 Economic Summit Orlando, FL December 15 th, 2015

2. Economic Policy Uncertainty  Health Care Reform  Employer mandates  Impact on labor market  Dodd-Frank Financial Regulatory Reform  Impact on credit flows & financial sector  37.1% (104 – 94 without proposals)  Fiscal Policy  Monetary Policy  When will interest rate hikes commence?  Labor market/wage growth  How will financial markets react?

3. U.S. Forecast

4.  Payroll jobs to reach potential

5. U.S. Forecast  Missing Workers

6. U.S. Forecast

7. Unemployment if “missing workers” were found

8. U.S. Economic Outlook 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014201520162017 GDP % Change, Annual Rate 4.65.02.42.32.52.72.9 Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate 3.01.1-1.21.60.41.92.2 Consumer Sentiment 82.883.089.884.190.489.588.9 Consumption % Change, Annual Rate 2.52.22.62.42.93.02.8

9. U.S. Forecast  The Arithmetic of Higher Oil Prices:  Each $1 decrease in the price of a barrel of oil will:  Decrease price of gallon of gas 2.5 cents  Push consumer gasoline bills down $3 billion  Lower the CPI 0.03%  Raise real disposable income 0.25%

10. U.S. Forecast  The Economics of lower Oil Prices:  Each permanent $10 decrease in the price of a barrel of oil will:  Raise forecast real GDP growth 0.2% in 1 st year, 0.5% in the 2 nd  Raise forecast of payroll employment 110,000 in 1 st year and 390,000 in 2nd  Psychic Impact  Domestic production impacts?

11. U.S. Forecast

12. Florida Housing Market  Housing market recovery continues  Now single-digit price appreciation  Still high level of investor activity  Housing finance still an issue

13. Florida Housing Market

15. November 2014 November 2013 Percent change Closed Sales17,77216,06110.7% Median Sale Price $176,000$170,0003.5% Median Days on Market 544910.2% Inventory ( Months Supply ) 5.35.6-4.8% Florida Housing Market

16.  Investors are still active in Florida residential real estate  Still high share of cash transactions  Private equity, hedge funds international buyers

17. Median Monthly Rent Median Home Price Annual yield January2012$1,233$129,00011.5% January-2013$1,289$145,00010.7% January-2014$1,395$163,00010.3% November- 2014 $1,420$176,0008.1% Housing Market Cash Sales  Why are investors still active in Florida residential real estate?

18. November 2014 November 2013 Cash as % of November 2014 Sales Florida6,9617,04839.2% Miami1,2921,39341.9% Tampa1,2241,09839.1% Jacksonville43942832.4% Orlando72373133.0% Housing Market Cash Sales

19. Florida Forecast

28. 2014-2017 Averages; Q4 2014 Forecast Florida Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction9.2 Professional & Business Services3.5 Trade, Transportation & Utilities3.3 Leisure & Hospitality2.0 Education-Health Services1.9 Information1.2 Financial0.9 Manufacturing0.6 State & Local Government0.5 Federal Government-0.6

29. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.4--- Deltona 1.27 Gainesville 0.811 Jacksonville 1.44 Lakeland 1.09 Miami 1.25 Naples 2.41 Ocala 1.63 Orlando 2.12 Palm Bay 1.18 Pensacola 0.612 Tallahassee 0.810 Tampa 1.26 2014-2017 Averages; Q4 2014 Forecast

30. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 2.2--- Deltona 1.77 Gainesville 1.112 Jacksonville 2.33 Lakeland 1.59 Miami 2.14 Naples 2.91 Ocala 1.58 Orlando 2.72 Palm Bay 1.76 Pensacola 1.311 Tallahassee 1.410 Tampa 1.85 2014-2017 Averages; Q4 2014 Forecast

31. Orlando MSA Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction8.6 Professional & Business Services4.1 Leisure & Hospitality2.9 Trade, Transportation & Utilities2.4 Education-Health Services2.2 Information1.8 Manufacturing1.2 State & Local Government1.1 Financial0.4 Federal Government-0.4

32. Orange County Forecast

43. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) 823-1453 Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDUwww.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith Thank you