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June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government.

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Presentation on theme: "June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government George Mason University Presentation to Prince William County Chamber of Commerce

2 Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016 Washington +2.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Apr-16 Total: 735.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5 Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 1980-2015 $ Billions | | | < 01–10 = $563.5B | TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion 79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov 71.2

6 Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2016 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7 Job Change by Sector Apr 2015 – Apr 2016 Northern Virginia (000s)Total 31,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

8 6.3 – DC 5.0 – U.S. 4.2 – SMD 4.1 – MSA 3.4 - NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

9 (000s) Annual Job Change – MOTYC Prince William County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10 Job Change by Sector Sep 2014 – Sep 2015 Prince William County (000s) Total = 4,502 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

11 Job Change by Sector Dec 2010 – Sep 2015 Prince William County (000s) Total = 5,710 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

12 Component Births6,874 Deaths(1,753) Net International Migration2,647 Net Domestic Migration(1,016) Residual(37) Total6,715 Population Change by Component, 2014-2015, Prince William Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

13 Commuting Patterns Prince William County 2014 Source: US Census Bureau

14 Where Workers Live Source: US Census Bureau

15 Where Residents Work Source: US Census Bureau

16 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016 Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV %

18 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) 20132014201520162017201820192020 D.C. 13.06.514.714.19.710.68.98.2 Sub. MD 6.111.117.420.217.714.112.011.0 No. VA 8.91.327.325.523.615.913.712.6 REGION 28.018.959.459.851.040.634.631.8 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

19 Thank You cra.gmu.edu

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