Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

Published byBarnaby Daniels Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University."— Presentation transcript:

1 IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

2 Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)

3 Quarter July 2009October 2010January 2011 2009 Q1 -5.5 -4.9** Q2 -2.1 -0.7** Q3 0.6 1.6** Q4 1.1 5.0** 2010 Q1 1.4 3.7** Q2 2.7 1.7** Q3 2.3 1.5 2.6** Q4* 3.3 1.9 3.7 2011 Q1* 2.2 3.8 Q2* 2.2 3.1 Q3* 2.7 2.4 Q4* 3.7 3.3 Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight *Projected **Actual

4 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

5 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2007 – December 2009 (000s) Total - 8,363,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

6 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2009 – December 2010 (000s)Total = 1,124 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

7 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.4 % GI Fcst 10 9.6 11 9.5 12 8.9 13 8.2 14 7.5 15 6.9

8 Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

9 Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >

10 Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

11 Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >

12 Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

13 The Washington Economy

14 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

15 Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16 Job Change by Sector Nov 2009 – Nov 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 09 – Nov 10 (000s) Washington + 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18 10.2 – DC 9.3 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 6.0 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

19 Economic Forecast

20 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20082009201020112012201320142015 D.C.10.1-0.610.810.39.79.69.39.4 Sub. MD -4.3-26.81.515.013.615.314.914.6 No. VA 3.7-24.59.521.520.722.922.320.3 REGION9.5-51.921.546.844.047.846.544.2 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

21 Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22 % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.

23 policy-cra.gmu.org

Download ppt "IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University."

Similar presentations

The Washington Area Economy and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis.

The Washington Area Economy and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis.
Economic Outlook 21 st Annual Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference Jack Kyser Sr. VP & Founding Economist, The Kyser Center for Economic.

Economic Outlook 21 st Annual Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference Jack Kyser Sr. VP & Founding Economist, The Kyser Center for Economic.
Stockholm Economy Q2 2014. Economic growth, private sector Gross pay, change (%) from the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted and trend-adjusted, annual.

Stockholm Economy Q Economic growth, private sector Gross pay, change (%) from the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted and trend-adjusted, annual.
Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,914.38.

Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,
The Regional Economy, Housing Market and Transportation System: Implications and Challenges June 14, 2007 LIVE NEAR YOUR WORK SEMINAR.

The Regional Economy, Housing Market and Transportation System: Implications and Challenges June 14, 2007 LIVE NEAR YOUR WORK SEMINAR.
Revenue Update A Briefing for the Virginia Association of Government Accountants John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Office of Revenue Forecasting.

Revenue Update A Briefing for the Virginia Association of Government Accountants John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Office of Revenue Forecasting.
A Closer View at Overall Economic Activity FED CHALLENGE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Housing Confidence Store Sales Manufacturing GDP Fed Balance.

A Closer View at Overall Economic Activity FED CHALLENGE THE CURRENT STATE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Housing Confidence Store Sales Manufacturing GDP Fed Balance.
Laura Kalambokidis One Minnesota Conference January 7, 2015 Minneapolis, MN Economic Outlook Across Minnesota MINNESOTA MANAGEMENT & BUDGET MMB.STATE.MN.US.

Laura Kalambokidis One Minnesota Conference January 7, 2015 Minneapolis, MN Economic Outlook Across Minnesota MINNESOTA MANAGEMENT & BUDGET MMB.STATE.MN.US.
Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst.

Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst.
January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional.

January 26, 2009 The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional.
October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public.

October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public.
Virginia Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives June 27, 2013 The Impact of Sequestration on the Virginia Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight.

Virginia Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives June 27, 2013 The Impact of Sequestration on the Virginia Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight.
Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce November 13, 2013 The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.

Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce November 13, 2013 The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.
Wisconsin is Open for Business October 20, 2011 Stateof Wisconsin’s Economy Wisconsin Freight Rail Day 2011 1 Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic.

Wisconsin is Open for Business October 20, 2011 Stateof Wisconsin’s Economy Wisconsin Freight Rail Day Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic.
Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight.

Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight.
Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.

Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Second District Project by Rodolfo Capiro Joseph Seifried Timothy F. Geithner President and CEO since November 17, 2003.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Second District Project by Rodolfo Capiro Joseph Seifried Timothy F. Geithner President and CEO since November 17, 2003.
BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization.

BOE Advisory Council July 25, 2013 The Economic Outlook Joe Fitz Chief of Research and Statistics Board of Equalization.
Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.

Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.
The Washington DC Housing Market: Trends and Outlook Housing Association of Non-Profit Developers December 11, 2014 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President.

The Washington DC Housing Market: Trends and Outlook Housing Association of Non-Profit Developers December 11, 2014 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google