1. October 27, 2010 The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University

2. Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

3. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >

4. L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Sep 2010 RECESSION > > >

5. MFG NON-MFG ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

6. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 454

7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = + 321 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

8. U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2007 – December 2009 (000s) Total - 8,363,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

9. U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2009 – September 2010 (000s)Total 613,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

10. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.6 % GI Fcst 10 9.7 11 9.6 12 9.1 13 8.5 14 7.9 15 7.3

11. The Washington Area Economy

12. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

13. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Sep 09 – Sep 10 (000s) Washington + 56,100 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15. Job Change by Sector Sep 2009 – Sep 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 56,100 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17. Job Change by Sector Dec 2007 – Dec 2009 Northern Virginia (000s) Total - 30,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18. Job Change by Sector Sep 2009 – Sep 2010 Northern Virginia (000s) Total 15,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19. 9.5 6.2 5.1 % Unemployment Rate Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted) U.S. MSA NVA

20. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate August 2010 % US 9.5 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.2

21. Housing Market Trends

22. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2010 12-Month Moving Average

23. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Sep = + 2.1%

24. Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year LDN PG FFX ARL DCMONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010

26. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010

27. Economic Forecast

28. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20072008200920102011201220132014 D.C.5.310.1-0.76.27.26.77.27.3 Sub. MD 4.8-1.4-26.79.39.711.113.314.7 No. VA 13.24.4-24.516.720.426.528.329.9 REGION23.312.9-51.932.237.344.348.851.9 Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

30. % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.

31. Policy-cra.gmu.edu