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Presented to 2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

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Presentation on theme: "Presented to 2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presented to 2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 19, 2009 The U.S. Economy as the Recession Ends

2 Real GDP: 2005 to 2012 November 19, 20092 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc. William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu

3 Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2005 Dollars) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 3

4 Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 4

5 FHFA Housing Price Index: 2005 to 2012 November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 5 Source: IHS Global Insight, Inc.

6 U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 6

7 Unified Federal Budget Surplus November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 7

8 $561 Billion Stimulus Injection 2009–2010 November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 8 Boost to GDP

9 Interest Rates and Inflation November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 9

10 TN and U.S. Nonag Job Growth (Year over Year) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 10

11 Change in U.S. Employment* August 2008 vs. August 2009 November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 11 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. *not seasonally adjusted →

12 U.S. Monthly Employment by Sector Compared to Recession Start (1 year before peak through Aug 2009) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 12 Source: Calculated by CBER using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics database).

13 TN and U.S. Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 13

14 Tennessee Job Growth by Sector (Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 14

15 Tennessee Manufacturing Jobs, 1990-2008 November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 15

16 Nonag Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept 2008 to Sept 2009) November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 16

17 Percent Growth in Total Tax Revenue Collections, FY2008-2009 November 19, 2009William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, http://cber.bus.utk.edu 17 Greater than -5.7% --18-- -10.0% to -5.7% --18-- Less than -10.0% --14-- U.S. = -8.2 %

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