School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought Policy Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln

HMNDP Leadership! WMO FAO UNCCD

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Steps to HMNDP 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011 Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on NDP, George Mason University, 2011 International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems, Casablanca, 2011 1st IOC meeting, Geneva Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 2011 2nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012 Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012 Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program, November, 2012 Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Presentation Outline The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense of urgency Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management Our CHANGING CLIMATE—CHANGING VULNERABILITY Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments Mitigation and response measures Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reduction Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Compendium of best practices in support of NDP Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP: Recommendations for Future Actions Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

The Enigma of Drought

Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Mexico City, Mexico Adelaide, Australia Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. characteristics vary between regions. definitions must be region and application specific. impacts are a good measure of severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Defining Drought Rainfall deciles -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration) . . . . . Meteorological Drought Rainfall deciles All droughts begin with a ‘deficiency of precipitation’, sometimes also associated with high temperatures, high winds, etc. When these conditions extend over a long period of time, they begin to affect many economic sectors and the environment. Precipitation Mean or Median Time (months, years)

It’s so dry . . . Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Defining Drought Meteorological Drought Agricultural, Hydrological and -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration) . . . . . Meteorological Drought and is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the environment (impacts). Agricultural, Hydrological and Socio-economic Drought

Evolution of Drought Types Cascading Impacts What are the indices and indicators?

Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies) Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts Rainfall Deficiencies Heat Stress Soils Crops Range Livestock Forests Water Supply Snow Depth Irrigation Recreation Tourism Hydropower Drought Risk Reduction Hydrological Agricultural Meteorological Socio-economic Societal Impact Time/Duration of the event

Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon” drought’s onset and end difficult to determine commonality with climate change

Drought– it sneaks up on you!

Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon” drought onset and end difficult to determine commonality with climate change absence of a universal definition impacts are nonstructural and spread over large areas severity and impacts best defined by multiple indices and indicators impacts are complex, affect many people, and vary on spatial and temporal timescales, multiple and migrating epicenters

30 month animation—USDM,2010-2013

Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management Crisis Management If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got. We MUST adopt a new paradigm for drought management!

Our Changing Climate IPCC 21

Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on Extreme Temperatures Box TS.5, Figure 1. Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when the mean temperature increases, for a normal temperature distribution.

Shifting Distribution of Summer Temperature Anomalies Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013

Adapting to Changing Extremes Highest 24h Precipitation WMO Highest Max. Temp. Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades Fits with IPCC more hot days and more heat waves 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Lowest Min. Temp. Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous four decades 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10  Fewer cool nights Highest 24h Precipitation The previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour precipitation records Intensification of heavy rainfall 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 (Source: WMO country data.

Managing for Climate Variability Storms Impacts of Global Climate Change: Increased frequency of extreme weather events Floods Droughts along with heat waves, snow storms, etc.

The Climate Challenge for Drought Management Increasing mean temperature High temp. stress and heat waves/longer growing seasons Increased evapotranspiration Changes in precipitation amount, distribution and intensity Reduced soil moisture Changes in groundwater recharge Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from reduced snowpack/sublimation Are droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration? Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Changes in Societal Vulnerability Drought impacts are more complex today as more economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically different and changing. Agricultural production Food security Energy Transportation Tourism/Recreation Forest/rangeland fires Municipal water Water quality/quantity Environment Ecosystem services Health

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 1980-2012 Number Number 500 400 300 200 100 Meteorological events (Storms, etc.) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Source: Munich Re © 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 1980-2012 Distribution of insured losses to different perils Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn Extreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry! Meteorological events (Storms, etc.) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temp, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Source: Munich Re

Natural Disasters in the U. S Natural Disasters in the U.S. 1980-2011 Number of Events, Annual Totals 2011 Total 171 Events 60 14 92 5 Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Munich Re 31

Drought Disaster Designations October 10, 2012 $16 billion in crop insurance indemnities Total drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion

greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also lead to: greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events increased reliance on government and donor interventions. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way Forward Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE Severity/Magnitude - Intensity/Duration Frequency Spatial extent Trends - Historical - Future Impacts Early warning SOCIAL FACTORS Population growth Population shifts Urbanization Technology Land use changes Environmental degradation Water use trends Government policies awareness RISK Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE SOCIAL FACTORS Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

The Cycle of Disaster Management Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience. proactive reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.

Reducing Societal Vulnerability Improve drought awareness Develop/improve monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems Improve decision support tools Complete risk assessments of vulnerable sectors, population groups, regions Improve understanding and quantification of drought impacts vs. mitigation costs Develop and implement drought preparedness plans Create national drought policies based on the principles of risk reduction

Follow-on Actions—HMNDP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative Project—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013 Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendations Publication of key papers from HMNDP

IDMP Objectives At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best practices related to drought risk management through: Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought management; Improved knowledge base, with better access to information and products; Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early warning; Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; and Drought risk reduction and response.

National Drought Policy Goals Proactive mitigation and planning measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship. Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observa­tion networks and information delivery systems to improve public unders­tanding of, and preparedness for, drought. Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

National Drought Policy Goals Recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels. Coordination of drought programmes and response in an effective, effi­cient and customer-oriented manner. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Resources Available Expert meeting to develop a compendium of best practices on national drought policy Promoting standard approaches to Vulnerability and Impact Assessments Implementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Enhancing Preparedness and Mitigation Actions Implementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought Policy Understanding the Cost of Inaction. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

HMNDP Plenary Sessions Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems Drought prediction and predictability Drought vulnerability and impact assessment Enhancing drought preparedness and mitigation Planning for appropriate response and relief within the framework of National Drought Policy Constructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forward Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources

Takeaway Messages Climate is changing—climate state and climate variability. Extreme climate events are increasing in frequency globally, managing impacts critically important. Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management. Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.

Thanks for your attention! Contact Information: School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln dwilhite2@unl.edu Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources