1. Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin
Risk Assessment
Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin
NIDIS Pilot
Carly Jerla
Bureau of Reclamation
Michael Hayes
National Drought Mitigation Center
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

2. Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans
Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
Risk and impact assessment
Who and what is at risk and why?
Mitigation and response
Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts
Programs and actions during drought events
Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

3. Risk Assessment Purpose
To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.

4. How to Reduce Risk http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf Western
Drought
Coordination
Council
How to
Reduce
Risk
Preparedness and Mitigation
Working Group
March 1998
Principal Authors:
Cody Knutson,
National Drought Mitigation Center
Mike Hayes,
Tom Phillips,
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

5. Components of Drought Risk Assessment
Hazard
Vulnerability = x
(natural event)
(social factors)
Where does the water come from?
Who uses the water?

6. Hazard Assessment (Understanding Drought Characteristics)
Review of all available climate resources
Historical analyses: frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extent
Temporal trends
Review available natural resources
Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater, etc…
Water use characteristics

7. Vulnerability Assessment
Impact Assessment
Social
Environmental
Economic
Causal Assessment
Temporal Trends

8. Impact Assessment Subcommittees
Colorado
Municipal Water
Wildfire Protection
Agricultural Industry
Tourism
Wildlife
Economic Impacts
Energy Loss
Health

9. Impact Assessment Subcommittees
Nebraska
Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife
Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy
New Mexico
Agriculture
Drinking Water, Health, and Energy
Wildlife and Wildfire
Tourism and Economic Impact

10. Impact Assessment Subcommittees
Hopi Nation
Range and Livestock
Agriculture
Village Water Supplies
Environmental Health

11. Challenges Risk: not all impacts are equal

12. Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska
LEGEND
Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland
Low
Low-to-Moderate
Moderate
High
vulnerability
Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27
Spatial Resolution: 200 m

13. Risk and Impact Lessons
Stakeholders
Reduces conflicts between water users
Promotes support
Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk
Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time)
Look Back and Look Ahead
Identify particular baselines
Triggers for decision-making