1. CLIMATE CHANGE – FUNDAMENTALS
(AGROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN BULGARIA AND RESILIENCE АGRICULTURE THROUGH ADAPTATION)
Prof. Dr. V. Kazandjiev
National Institutte of Meteorology and Hydrology – BAS,
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS
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2. Daily questions about climate change as: 1
Daily questions about climate change as: 1. When we talk about climate change? 2. What are the climatic anomalies? 3. What are the consequences of climate change? 4. How to mitigate the effects of climate change? 5. Should science to study the processes of climate change? 6. Could there be a sustainable economy in terms of climate change? 7. How to adapt sectors of the economy to climate change? 8. Is the national security depend from climate change?

3. Extreme weather events and trends
One of the sectors that significantly affected by climate change is agriculture;
From 1970 we have observed an increasing frequency and intensity of dangerous weather conditions for agriculture:
- heavy rains and flooding, hail, high winds, drought, heat waves, frost;
- change in seasonality of weather, sudden warming in winter and cooling in summer.
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4. warming with increased frequency of extremes
Contemporary climate signal :
warming with increased frequency of extremes
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5. Anomalies of air temperature in Bulgaria in comparison with the period 1961-1990
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6. Spatial presentation of average annual temperatures within the country in °C for the period
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7. Distribution of the average maximum air temperatures (°C) for the period 1996-2015
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8. Distribution of average minimum air temperatures (° C) for the period 1996-2015
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9. Number of summer days with maximum temperature >25 ° C, 1961-1990
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10. Number of summer days with maximum temperature >25°C, 2021-2050, the regional model ALADIN
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11. Average annual air temperature for 1961-1990
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12. Average annual air temperature for 2080 under pessimistic scenario for climate
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13. Duration (in days) of potential vegetative season
(PVP> 10°C),
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14. Expected Duration (in days) of potential vegetative season (PVP> 10°C), 2030 + 1 month
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15. Phenological stages: indicator for warming
Change (in days) for the duration of the inter-stage periods for different types of vegetation: , as compared with
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16. Extreme weather events:
Extreme high and low temperatures cause heat stress and frost damage to crops that reduce yields;
Long periods without rain caused a prerequisite for dry soils and stop growth of crops ;
Intense and torrential rains caused flooding and waterlogging of fields planted with crops, leading to wastage of agricultural production;
According to climate models calculations frequency of extreme weather events in 2020 will double compared to 1971, and by 2050 it will triple.
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17. Impact of climate change
Relation between temperature and impacts: The risks intensify as temperature rises. A BAU scenario implies a rise of 4-5 degrees-equivalent to the change in average temperatures from the last ice age to today. 17
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Stern,2006 17

18. AGRO ECONOMY VULNERABILITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
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19. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
S. EUROPE
N. EUROPE
INCREASE OF FOREST AREA
FOREST FIRE RISK
INCREASE OF WATER RESOURCES (2070 ca.1/5)
RERUCTION OF WATER RESOURCES
( ca.1/3)
Del T (2070s)
B1 1-4
A – 5.5
Fire - Portugal
HIGHER YIELDS
LOWER YIELDS
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20. Climatic values ​​of annual rainfall for the period 1976-2015
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21. Deviation of rainfall during the period 1976-2015 to the period 1961-1990
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22. Climatic limits the amount of rainfall during the period , the red line corresponds to the average amount of rainfall for the country
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23. VULNERABILITY
Bulgaria
Changes (in days) in the duration of a sunflower vegetation to 2080, compared to now, HadCM2 scenario for Balkan Peninsula
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24. VULNERABILITY
Bulgaria
Changes (in percens %) in sunflower production from 2071 to 2080, compared to now, HadCM2 scenario Balkan Peninsula
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25. MAIZE 2070-2080 HadCM3 – A2 vs. 1961-1990 Poland BULGARIA
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26. Changes of yields from wheat (below) and maize (left) under
indirect CO2 effect direct CO2 effect ) % (
-10 s e g n
-20 a
Vulnerability: h c
-30 d
CCC l e
Changes of yields from wheat (below) and maize (left) under
2xCO2 scenario i
GISS y
-40 e
UK89 z i a
-50
OSU M
GFDL-R30
-60
HCGG
HCGS
indirect CO2 effect
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS
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27. In Bulgaria the twenty-first century, the most vulnerable will be:
spring crops due to the expected precipitation deficit during the warm half of the year;
crops grown on less fertile soils;
cultures grown on non irrigated lands;
farmland in Southeastern Bulgaria, where even in contemporary climatic conditions are with insufficient rainfall amounts for normal growth, development and formation productivity of agricultural crops.
IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS OM MILITARY ACTIVITIES – BUILDING RESILIENCE AND MITIGATING RISKS AND VULNERABILITY IN THE BALKANS
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28. Climate change impact on ecosystems, in most cases - negative
Climate change impact on ecosystems, in most cases - negative. The analysis of vulnerabilities in different climatic conditions, evaluation of adaptation measures, action plans, strategies .
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29. ADAPTATION
The basic strategy for the development of agriculture in this country should be complying with results from Bulgarian and European science of adaptation of agriculture to climate change;
A detailed study of agro-climatic resources in order to improve agricultural production and its competitiveness;
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30. ADAPTATION 2
Restructuring of agriculture in areas with a focus on maximum utilization of agro-climatic resources for growing basic types of crops;
Regionalization and specialization of agricultural production under agro-climatic resources and prepare recommendations for the restructuring of agriculture in Bulgaria;
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31. ADAPTATION 3
To apply best agricultural practices using powerful and resistant to drought and diseases varieties and hybrids;
Sustainable agriculture with high performance in terms of Bulgaria can only grow under irrigation: increasing of irrigated land in production agriculture;
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32. Thank you