1. Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature is observed during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas Historical climatological data indicates warming in upper snow covered parts of the Indus basin and some increase in rainfall in flood generating areas, whereas decrease in rainfall, rise in maximum temperature and decrease in minimum temperature is observed during 1968-97 from that of 1937-67 in arid areas The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a 6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 1937- 67 The analysis of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons indicated a 6.4% reduction in river flows during 1968-97 from that of 1937- 67

2. A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in temperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitation A reduction of 6.7% in base flow of Indus basin is estimated in 2020 at 0.3% decadal increase in temperature and 1% decrease in decadal precipitation 2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020 resulting in increased irrigation requirements of crops 2 % increase in reference crop ET is estimated by 2020 resulting in increased irrigation requirements of crops IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin inflows by the year 2050 IPCC 2001 predicts 27 % reduction in the Indus basin inflows by the year 2050 Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability

3. Production Less growing season length Less growing season length High crop water requirement High crop water requirement Low water availability (site 1) Low water availability (site 1) Change in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping system Change in rainfall pattern, so may effect current cropping system Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1) Shift from high delta crops to low delta crops (Site 1) Frequency of extreme events  Droughts/Floods Frequency of extreme events  Droughts/Floods With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater incidence of plant pests/ disease With increase in relative humidity in rice intensive areas greater incidence of plant pests/ disease Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand casting Land degradation due to drought and flooding, bank cutting, sand casting Loss in production due to rainfall at harvesting time Loss in production due to rainfall at harvesting time

4. Access High cost of production due to high cost of irrigation due to low surface water availability High cost of production due to high cost of irrigation due to low surface water availability Change in selling pattern Change in selling pattern Decrease in profitability  Incidence of Poverty Decrease in profitability  Incidence of Poverty Decrease in competitiveness Decrease in competitiveness Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost of production and prices of food Increased use of chemicals leading to high cost of production and prices of food Bigger gap in gender aspect Bigger gap in gender aspect

5. Adaptive Capacity of outcomes to GEC changes: The Case of 1, 2,3 Sites

6. Production Social: Social: Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water (Ludhiana) Crop pattern can be diversified requiring less water (Ludhiana) Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater (Ludhiana, Gujarat) Conjunctive use of surface water with groundwater (Ludhiana, Gujarat) Diversification in the income activities like shifting to dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat) Diversification in the income activities like shifting to dairy and poultry (Ludhiana, Gujarat) Shifting to water saving techniques Shifting to water saving techniques Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which have short duration Developing/adopting those cultivars of rice, which have short duration

7. Production Shift in public investment priorities (Government support in research and development) towards dis- advanteagous areas/crops/enterprises Shift in public investment priorities (Government support in research and development) towards dis- advanteagous areas/crops/enterprises Emphasis on water use efficiency measures Emphasis on water use efficiency measures Technology emphasis on water use efficiency Technology emphasis on water use efficiency -zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and furrow cultivation of rice -zero till in wheat, raised bed in wheat, bund and furrow cultivation of rice -Irrigation methods -Irrigation methods -Rain water harvesting -Rain water harvesting Early warning systems Early warning systems

8. Access MigrationCredit Community support Efficient storage Through diversification of enterprises

9. Utilization Promoting local food habits Promoting local food habits Changing food basket Changing food basket

10. Coping Strategies Reducing conveyance losses by improving water distribution network Reducing conveyance losses by improving water distribution network Managing water shortage by demand management, adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and cultivation of drought resistant crop varieties Managing water shortage by demand management, adjusting cropping pattern with water availability and cultivation of drought resistant crop varieties Improving water productivity through improved field layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized irrigation Improving water productivity through improved field layout, efficient irrigation techniques and optimized irrigation Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters - droughts and floods. Reducing vulnerability to water related disasters - droughts and floods.

11. Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing system Early waning system/ Weather Information sharing system Water saving techniques Water saving techniques Heat resistant /shot duration verities Heat resistant /shot duration verities Coping Strategies