Crop Market Outlook Think Tank for Animal Agriculture Ames, Iowa Oct. 31, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.5 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 173.4 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 15,057 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,738 Imports 160 36 32 67 50 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,400 16,845 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,192 5,650 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,275 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,367 1,375 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,898 2,225 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,662 14,525 Ending Stocks 2,320 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.25 Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 51.4 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,269 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 197 Imports 41 72 33 24 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,496 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,950 Seed & Residual 105 107 146 121 126 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,025 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,943 4,101 Ending Stocks 395 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.05 Source: USDA-WAOB, modified 3 3

Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 3.69 3.32 Source: CME Group, 10/28/2016

Current Soybean Futures 9.61 9.47 Source: CME Group, 10/28/2016

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

2017/18 Crop Margins

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/