1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
2018/19 Ag Outlook:
The Good, The Bad,
& The Mildly Amusing
Aug. 7, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
174.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,230
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,027
Imports 32 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,937
16,307
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,470
5,450
5,425
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,625
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,294
2,400
2,225
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,910
14,755
Ending Stocks
1,552
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,310
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
465
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,715
4,800
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,901
2,030
2,045
Seed & Residual
146
122
136
135
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,166
2,085
2,040
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,214
4,251
4,220
Ending Stocks
580
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.35
9.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Combined Corn & Soy Acres
Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

18. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

19. Current Corn Futures
4.14
3.88
Source: CME Group, 8/6/2018

20. Current Soybean Futures
9.15
8.85
Source: CME Group, 8/6/2018

21. 2017/18 Crop Margins

22. 2018/19 Crop Margins

23. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

24. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

25. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: