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Marketing Update for 2014 and Beyond

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Presentation on theme: "Marketing Update for 2014 and Beyond"— Presentation transcript:

1 Marketing Update for 2014 and Beyond
Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa Dec. 5, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 160.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,989 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824 Imports 8 28 29 162 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,837 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,333 5,200 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,400 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,108 12,950 Ending Stocks 1,887 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,258 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,413 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,685 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 109 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,450 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,098 3,243 Ending Stocks 170 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.15 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5 Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

10 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

11 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

12 Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

13 Corn Grind for Ethanol

14 Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

15 Current Corn Futures 4.39 4.28 4.17 Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

16 Current Soybean Futures
12.42 11.01 10.86 Source: CME Group, 12/4/2013

17 Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

18 Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

19 Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

20 Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

21 Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (12/4/13) Corn $6.89 $4.50 $4.17 Soybeans $14.40 $12.15 $12.42

22 World Corn Markets Source: USDA 22 22

23 Arable Land

24 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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