1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook
27th Annual Tri-State Agricultural Lenders Seminar
Dubuque, IA
Oct. 30, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
155.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,843
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
824
Imports 8 28 29
162 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,931
14,593
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,546
4,475
5,100
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,665
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,395
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
735
1,225
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,270
12,675
Ending Stocks
2,018
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.90
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
41.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,149
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 40
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,243
3,305
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,690
1,655
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 97
115
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,315
1,370
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,102
3,140
Ending Stocks
166
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Early Reports on Corn Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Early Reports on Soybean Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Grind for Ethanol

17. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18. Current Corn Futures
4.50
4.37
4.03
Source: CME Group, 10/29/2013

19. Current Soybean Futures
12.06
11.00
10.88
Source: CME Group, 10/29/2013

20. New Crop Prices

21. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

22. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

23. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
A lot of production uncertainty for harvest time
Corn demand rebounding?
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(10/29/13)
Corn
$6.90
$4.80
$4.03
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.06

24. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: