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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

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Presentation on theme: "Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist"— Presentation transcript:

1 Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop Market Outlook Hawkeye Farm Show Cedar Falls, Iowa Mar. 1, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.7 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,065 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,320 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,435 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,131 5,600 5,450 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,350 5,400 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,445 1,470 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,900 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,620 14,220 Ending Stocks 2,215 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.40 3.50 Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 88.0 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,180 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 420 Imports 72 33 24 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,625 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 1,945 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 128 135 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,125 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,108 4,205 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.60 Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4 Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5 Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

9 Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

10 U.S. Meat Trade Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

13 Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

15 Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16 Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

17 Corn Grind for Ethanol

18 Current Corn Futures 4.03 3.93 3.54 Source: CME Group, 2/28/2017

19 Current Soybean Futures
10.04 9.71 9.67 Source: CME Group, 2/28/2017

20 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

21 2017/18 Crop Margins

22 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

23 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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