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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 7, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1
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Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS
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Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
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Arable land
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Global Shares Source: USDA
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Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
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U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 14,890 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,735 Imports 67 57 36 40 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,665 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,500 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,575 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,475 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,865 15,015 Ending Stocks 1,650 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 85.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,175 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 910 Imports 24 22 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,105 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,090 2,105 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 2,025 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,092 4,260 Ending Stocks 845 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16
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Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 17 17
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Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 18 18
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World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19
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World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20
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Current Corn Futures 3.92 3.54 Source: CME Group, 3/6/2019
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Current Soybean Futures
9.26 8.64 Source: CME Group, 3/6/2019
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2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
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2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
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Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
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Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
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Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey
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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:
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