1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Marketing Update for 2014
and Beyond
Ag Leader Technology
Ames, Iowa
Feb. 17, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
821
Imports 8 28 29
162 35
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,335
5,300
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,400
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
1,600
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,300
Ending Stocks
1,481
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36 30
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,459
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,700
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90 99
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,510
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,309
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
12.70
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

14. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

15. Current Corn Futures
4.49
4.48
4.42
Source: CME Group, 2/14/2014

16. Current Soybean Futures
12.82
10.96
10.64
Source: CME Group, 2/14/2014

17. Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Sources: USDA-NASS, Duffy

18. Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Sources: USDA-NASS, Duffy

19. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

20. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(2/14/14)
2014/15
Corn
$6.89
$4.50
$4.49
$4.42
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.70
$12.82
$10.96

22. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 22 22

23. Arable Land

24. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: