1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
2018/19 Market Outlook:
The Good, The Bad,
& The Mildly Amusing
Sept. 18, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
181.3
3.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,827
241
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,002
-25
Imports 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,937
16,879
215
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,450
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,650 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,425
2,400
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,935
15,105
125
Ending Stocks
1,774 90
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.50
-0.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.1
52.8
1.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,693
107
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
395
-35
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,715
5,113 73
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070 10
Seed & Residual
122
146
136
137 1
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,130
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,321
4,268 12
Ending Stocks
845 60
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.35
8.60
-0.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

17. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

18. Current Corn Futures
3.87
3.50
Source: CME Group, 9/18/2018

19. Current Soybean Futures
8.71
8.12
Source: CME Group, 9/18/2018

20. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

21. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

22. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: