1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Mar. 1, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
174.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,390
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,352
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,947
16,922
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,467
5,550
5,475
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,439
5,525
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,450
1,470
1,495
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,050
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,595
14,520
Ending Stocks
2,272
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.30
3.40
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,320
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
530
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,718
4,875
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,899
1,950
1,980
Seed & Residual
146
122
141
139
135
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,100
2,300
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,213
4,188
4,415
Ending Stocks
460
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.25
Source: USDA 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 6 6

7. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7

8. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

15. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

17. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

22. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

23. Current Corn Futures
4.13
4.02
3.53
Source: CME Group, 2/28/2018

24. Current Soybean Futures
10.12
9.85
9.60
Source: CME Group, 2/27/2018

25. 2017/18 Crop Margins

26. 2018/19 Crop Margins

27. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

28. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: