ENEA, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Changes in HM concentrations from 2005 to 2010 in Italy: Preliminary analysis of observations and model results Mihaela Mircea, Mario Adani, Andrea Cappelletti, Gino Briganti, Massimo D’Isidoro, Antonio Piersanti, Lina Vitali, Luisella Ciancarella, Gabriele Zanini ENEA, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy 16th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting 5 - 8 May 2015 in Krakow, Poland

Outline Annual changes between 2010 and 2005 for As, Ni, Cd and Pb. Description of AMS-MINNI modelling system and of simulations setup Spatial distribution of concentrations Changes in spatial distribution of emissions and concentrations Model changes versus measurement changes Summary of results

Space, time, species info AMS-MINNI Air Quality Emissions Meteorology RAMS Local data ECMWF fields Reference meteo year Ref. inventory Space, time, species info Emission Manager Emission scenario Conc & dep. fields EMEP B.C. FARM FARM main features: Emission of pollutants from area and point sources, with plume rise calculation and mass assignment to vertical grid cells 3D dispersion by advection and turbulent diffusion Flexible gas-phase mechanism (SAPRC-99, POPs-Hg) through KPP (Kinetic Pre-Processor: Damian et al., 2002). Treatment of PM10 and PM2.5 (aero3 modal aerosol module) Dry removal of pollutants dependent on local meteorology and land-use Removal through precipitation scavenging processes

Simulations Setup 2005& 2010: 20 km grid resolution Meteorology had been produced with the RAMS model using initial and boundary conditions from ECMWF analyses Initial/Boundary condition: EMEP W/MSC-E output at 6 hour time resolution for HM and POPs, EMEP/MSC-W output at 3 hour time resolution for the other gas and aerosol species ; both EMEP models had a spatial horizontal resolution of 50 km; Emission inventories: national territory ISPRA 2009 for 2005 and ISPRA Informative Inventory Report 2013 for 2010, EMEP inventory for foreign countries Natural HM emissions associated to soil dust and sea-salt aerosols have been included in the simulations following the methodology used by Travnikov and Ilyin (2007). 2010: 4 km grid resolution Meteorology and air quality were simulated with initial/boundary condition from 20 km grid resolution run Emissions ere the same as for 20 km grid resolution run, but spatialized with more detailed proxies.

Emissions changes between 2010 and 2005: tonnes/year S01 Combustion in energy and transformation industries S02 Non-industrial combustion plants S03 Combustion in manufacturing industry S04 Production processes S05 Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy S06 Solvent and other product use S07 Road transport S08 Other mobile sources and machinery S09 Waste treatment and disposal S10 Agriculture S11 Other sources and sinks

As: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010 Target Value: 6 ng/m3

Ni: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010 Target Value: 20 ng/m3

Cd: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010 Target Value: 5 ng/m3

Pb: EMEP vs MINNI EMEP 50x50km MINNI 20x20km MINNI 4x4km 2005 2010 Target Value: 500 ng/m3

As: Emissions changes between 2010 and 2005 point emissions other emissions anthropogenic emissions no point emissions

As: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

Ni: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005 point emissions other emissions anthropogenic emissions no point emissions

Ni: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

Cd: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005 point emissions other emissions anthropogenic emissions no point emissions

Cd: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

Pb: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005 point emissions other emissions anthropogenic emissions no point emissions

Pb: Emissions vs Concentrations differences between 2010 and 2005

Available measurements 2010 2005

Observed and simulated concentrations changes for As: (2010-2005)/2005

Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Ni: (2010-2005)/2005

Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Cd: (2010-2005)/2005

Observed and simulated concentrations changes for Pb: (2010-2005)/2005

Summary of results generally, the most significant changes in concentrations are explained by the changes in anthropogenic emissions Ni concentrations decreased below 3 ng/m3 in 2010 in spite of an overall increasing of As emissions (S03) and Pb emissions (S02, S07, S08) in 2010 with respect to 2005, their concentrations in the Po Valley had decreased Cd and Pb concentrations had increase around Torino and Brescia in correspondance of an increase in anthropogenic emissions significativ increase of concentrations close to the boundaries is observed caused by BCs from EMEP/MSC-E model and foreign emissions inventories simulations reproduce well the observed changes at most of the stations; the increase of grid resolution does not improve always the agreement with measurements due to complex interactions between orography, meteorology and emissions