1. Simulation of European emissions impacts on particulate matter concentrations in 2010 using Models-3 Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE npower) Power Technology, Environmental Compliance Group

2. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 2 Overview of presentation Background to study Air quality legislation covering particulate matter (PM) and issues for electricity generation sector Models-3 and treatment of PM Overview of modelled scenario Results - compliance with guidelines sector by sector impacts primary versus secondary particulate impacts implications of a population exposure approach

3. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 3 Background to study  Power Technology work on behalf of UK power generator’s Joint Environmental Programme (the JEP)  Eight companies – cover majority of the UK coal and oil-fired generation  Investigate environmental issues of relevance to the power industry  Air quality, acid deposition, particulate matter formation  Selected Models-3 in 1999 to address regional scale issues

4. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 4 Mounting evidence for association between exposure to PM and adverse health impacts Fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) believed to be primarily responsible Lack of evidence for a threshold for harmful effects Based on current understanding, World Health Organisation (WHO) has updated its air quality guidelines (AQG) (October 2006) For the first time, WHO has recommended guidelines for PM 2.5 Updated guidelines for PM have been proposed for Europe and the UK Particulate matter (PM) and human health impacts

5. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 5 Updates to PM guidelines New EU air quality Directive (current understanding - currently being debated) PM 10 30 µgm -3 annual mean PM 2.5 25 µgm -3 annual mean (binding from 2010) PM 2.5 Up to 20% reduction in urban background annual mean UK Air Quality Strategy – updates proposed by Defra: PM 10 Retain standards??? PM 2.5 25 µgm -3 annual mean for PM 2.5 PM 2.5 15% exposure reduction target for annual mean PM 2.5 WHO Air Quality Guidelines Global Update PM 2.5 10 µgm -3 annual mean and 25 µgm -3 24-hour mean

6. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 6 Important issues for the JEP  Power stations contribute to PM concentrations:  ~9% of UK primary emissions (EMEP Webdab) Secondary - emissions of precursor gases SO 2 (70%) and NO x (20%)  Uncertainty regarding fraction responsible for adverse health effects Toxicology studies suggest primary combustion particles have high toxic potency Other components are thought to have a lower toxic potency e.g. ammonium salts, chlorides, sulphates, nitrates  Need to understand the effect of our emissions on primary and secondary PM 2.5 concentrations

7. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 7 Models-3/CMAQ  3-D gridded Eulerian model  Set up to run on three nested grids (54, 18, and 6km resolution)  21 vertical layers (15km)  Requires hourly gridded emissions and meteorology  Plus land-use, initial conditions, boundary conditions  Chemical Scheme: RADM2+aerosols+aqueous chemistry

8. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 8 Modelling Particulate in Models-3  Based on USEPA particulate model / Regional Acid Deposition Model  Time-dependent size distribution & size specific chemical composition  Modal approach – Coarse, accumulation & nucleation  Described by particle number concentration, total surface area & total mass  Species  Sulphate, Nitrate, Ammonium  Elemental Carbon  Primary organic species  Anthropogenic secondary organic species  Biogenic secondary species  Unspecified anthropogenic species  Can also include aerosol water

9. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 9 Modelling study Compared contributions of 7 sectors to ground-level PM concentrations Model run for an entire year, month-by-month basis, 1999 met data Anthropogenic emissions scenario for the year 2010 – data from EMEP WebDab Expert Emissions Database (emep.webdab.int) Emissions data were available for all major pollutants (SO 2, NO x, PM 10, PM 2.5, NH 3 and NMVOC). Temporal profiles applied using smoke. - energy sector data provided by JEP companies Emissions from SNAP categories 1, 3 and 4 assigned to point sources (based on assumptions from National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory)

10. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 10 Sectors for which impacts have been assessed Ground-level PM concentrations due to 7 different sectors compared Eight model runs performed in total Sectors: Agriculture Energy Industry – SNAP cats 3,4,5,6,9 Natural Residential Shipping Transport – SNAP cats 7,8 Ground-level concentration output: Total PM 10 Primary PM 10 Secondary Total PM 2.5 Primary PM 2.5

11. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 11 Emissions data by SNAP category SectorSNAPSource Combustion in energy production and transformation1EMEP Non-industrial combustion (residential, commercial & institutional) 2EMEP Combustion in industry3EMEP Production Processes4EMEP Extraction & distribution of fossil fuels5EMEP Solvent use6EMEP Road transport7EMEP Other transport and mobile machinery8EMEP Waste treatment & disposal9EMEP Agriculture, forestry and land-use change10EMEP Shipping8EMEP Natural Sources11GEIA Volcanoes11EMEP

12. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 12 Models-3 PM simulation validation Comparison with measured data – 24 hour averages January 1999 July 1999

13. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 13 Results – comparison with standards

14. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 14 Exceedances of 25μgm -3 annual mean for PM 2.5 Area Grid square Eastern Sicily (44,11) Northern Italy (34,25) Agriculture2.310.9 Energy0.71.9 Industry1.25.0 Natural19.41.5 Residential0.65.2 Transport7.114.5 Shipping1.31.0 All Sources27.730.2

15. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 15 Exeedances of 12 μgm -3 annual mean for PM 2.5

16. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 16 All source primary and secondary PM 2.5 concentrations

17. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 17 Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima ( µgm -3 ) SectorTotal PM 2.5 Secondary PM 2.5 Primary PM 2.5 AverageMaxAverageMaxAverageMax Agriculture2.3311.532.3111.490.030.47 Energy0.784.330.743.930.050.57 Industry0.845.490.663.370.184.32 Natural0.6119.430.6019.430.010.03 Residential0.636.260.341.760.305.37 Transport1.1614.500.9810.930.183.57 Shipping0.614.640.594.640.031.54 All sources7.1930.176.4026.710.798.88

18. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 18 Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima ( µgm -3 ) SectorTotal PM 2.5 Secondary PM 2.5 Primary PM 2.5 AverageMaxAverageMaxAverageMax Agriculture2.3311.532.3111.490.030.47 Energy0.784.330.743.930.050.57 Industry0.845.490.663.370.184.32 Natural0.6119.430.6019.430.010.03 Residential0.636.260.341.760.305.37 Transport1.1614.500.9810.930.183.57 Shipping0.614.640.594.640.031.54 All sources7.1930.176.4026.710.798.88

19. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 19 Exposure approach – population data Based on Gridded Population of the World (GPW) dataset, available from Centre for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) website Projected to Lambert Conformal Projection appropriate for Models-3 Population density in persons per km 2 ■■■■■        

20. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 20 Population exposure Agriculture Residential Energy Population exposure to secondary PM 2.5 (person. μ gm -3 km -2 )

21. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 21 Population exposure Agriculture Residential Energy Population exposure to primary PM 2.5 (person. μ gm -3 km -2 )

22. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 22 Impact of considering population exposure

23. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 23 Conclusions No exceedances of 40 μgm -3 annual mean for PM 10 predicted in 2010 Exceedances of 25 μgm -3 annual mean for PM 2.5 in two locations only Secondary particulates dominate all source PM concentrations Emissions from agriculture dominate secondary concentrations Primary concentrations dominated by emissions from transport, residential and industrial sectors Given current evidence for adverse health effects, greatest benefits expected for emissions reductions in these sectors Energy sector contributions to concentrations due to all anthro sources are relatively low ( 11.2% to total PM 2.5, 11.9% to secondary and 6.4% to primary) Population exposure approach places even greater emphasis on transport and residential emissions since air quality impacts high in densely populated areas

24. © 2005 E.ON08 September 2015, E.ON UK, Page 24 Any questions?