Crop Market Outlook for 2014 Fort Dodge, Iowa Dec. 12, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 160.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,989 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824 Imports 8 28 29 162 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,842 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,333 5,200 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 4,950 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,108 13,050 Ending Stocks 1,792 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,258 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 25 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,423 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,690 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 109 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,475 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,098 3,274 Ending Stocks 150 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
Prices
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8
World Weather Source: USDC and USDA 9 9
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 18 18
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 19 19
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) Liquid Fuel Usage 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2010 Value) United States 18.9 101% 103% 99% 98% Canada 2.2 100% Mexico 2.4 105% 110% 117% 127% 138% Europe 14.8 91% 93% 94% Japan 4.4 106% 97% China 9.3 125% 146% 165% 178% 195% India 3.3 113% 134% 158% 186% 217% Africa 3.4 107% 112% 119% 126% Central and South America 6.0 108% 114% 121% 128% World 86.7 111% 116% 120% Source: DOE-EIA
Current Corn Futures 4.41 4.31 4.20 Source: CME Group, 12/11/2013
Current Soybean Futures 12.50 11.05 10.87 Source: CME Group, 12/11/2013
Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS
Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (12/11/13) Corn $6.89 $4.40 $4.20 Soybeans $14.40 $12.50
World Corn Markets Source: USDA 29 29
Arable Land
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/