1. Ag Outlook Clear Lake Bank & Trust Ag Meeting Clear Lake, Iowa
Jan. 22, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
821
Imports 8 28 29
162 35
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,335
5,300
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,400
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
1,450
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,150
Ending Stocks
1,631
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,454
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,700
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,495
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,304
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 8 8

9. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

10. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)16 16

17. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2010 Value)
United States
18.9
101%
103%
99%
98%
Canada
2.2
100%
Mexico
2.4
105%
110%
117%
127%
138%
Europe
14.8
91%
93%
94%
Japan
4.4
106%
97%
China
9.3
125%
146%
165%
178%
195%
India
3.3
113%
134%
158%
186%
217%
Africa
3.4
107%
112%
119%
126%
Central and South America
6.0
108%
114%
121%
128%
World
86.7
111%
116%
120%
Source: DOE-EIA

19. Current Corn Futures
4.40
4.35
4.29
Source: CME Group, 1/22/2014

20. Current Soybean Futures
12.57
10.81
10.61
Source: CME Group, 1/22/2014

21. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

22. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

23. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

24. 2013/14 Crop Prices

25. 2014/15 Crop Margins

26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(1/22/14)
2014/15
Corn
$6.89
$4.40
$4.35
$4.29
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.57
$10.81

27. Population 2013 2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China
2020
2050
(billion)
World
7.095
7.628
9.383
China
1.350
1.385
India
1.657
1.221
1.326
1.304
U.S.
0.317
0.337
0.423
Indonesia
0.251
0.267
Nigeria
0.402
Brazil
0.201
Pakistan
0.214
0.300
0.193
0.212
0.291
0.175
0.208
Bangladesh
0.250
0.164
0.183
0.232
Russia
0.143
0.142
Ethiopia
0.228
Japan
0.127
0.126
Philippines
0.172
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

28. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 28 28

29. Arable Land

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: