1. Corn and Soybean Price Outlook
Corn and Soybean Clinics
Northwood and Clear Lake, Iowa
Dec. 13, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
160.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,989
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
824
Imports 8 28 29
162 30
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,842
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,557
4,333
5,200
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,000
4,648
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
731
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,528
11,108
13,050
Ending Stocks
1,792
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,258
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
141
Imports 15 14 16 36 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,423
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,690
Seed & Residual
110
130 88 90
109
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,475
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,098
3,274
Ending Stocks
150
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Prices

5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)18 18

19. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)19 19

20. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

21. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2010 Value)
United States
18.9
101%
103%
99%
98%
Canada
2.2
100%
Mexico
2.4
105%
110%
117%
127%
138%
Europe
14.8
91%
93%
94%
Japan
4.4
106%
97%
China
9.3
125%
146%
165%
178%
195%
India
3.3
113%
134%
158%
186%
217%
Africa
3.4
107%
112%
119%
126%
Central and South America
6.0
108%
114%
121%
128%
World
86.7
111%
116%
120%
Source: DOE-EIA

22. Current Corn Futures
4.34
4.25
4.16
Source: CME Group, 12/12/2013

23. Current Soybean Futures
12.40
10.96
10.80
Source: CME Group, 12/12/2013

24. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

25. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

26. Crop Acreage
Source: USDA-NASS

27. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

28. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(12/12/13)
Corn
$6.89
$4.40
$4.16
Soybeans
$14.40
$12.50
$12.40

29. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 29 29

30. Arable Land

31. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: