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Crop Market Outlook Returning to the Farm Seminar Ames, Iowa

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Presentation on theme: "Crop Market Outlook Returning to the Farm Seminar Ames, Iowa"— Presentation transcript:

1 Crop Market Outlook Returning to the Farm Seminar Ames, Iowa
Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 165.3 Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,985 Beg. Stocks 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,481 Imports 28 29 162 35 25 Total Supply 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,491 Feed & Residual 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 5,400 Ethanol 5,019 5,000 4,648 Food, Seed, & Other 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 1,430 Exports 1,834 1,543 731 1,600 1,550 Total Use 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,300 13,380 Ending Stocks 2,111 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB for 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 79.5 Yield (bu./acre) 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 45.2 Production (mil. bu.) 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 3,550 Beg. Stocks 151 215 169 141 150 Imports 14 16 36 30 15 Total Supply 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,459 3,715 Crush 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700 1,725 Seed & Residual 130 88 90 99 105 Exports 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,510 1,600 Total Use 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,309 3,430 Ending Stocks 285 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.70 9.65 Source: USDA-WAOB for 3 3

4 Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5 Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

9 Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

10 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

12 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

13 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14 Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

15 Corn Grind for Ethanol

16 Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

17 Current Corn Futures 4.67 4.68 4.60 Source: CME Group, 3/6/2014

18 Current Soybean Futures
13.08 11.53 10.95 Source: CME Group, 3/6/2014

19 Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

20 Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

21 2013/14 Crop Prices

22 2014/15 Crop Margins

23 Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

24 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

25 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

26 Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2013/14 USDA 2014/15 Unofficial Futures (3/6/14) Corn $4.50 $3.90 $4.67 $4.68 Soybeans $12.70 $9.65 $13.08 $11.53

27 World Corn Markets Source: USDA 27 27

28 Arable Land

29 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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