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2013/14 Crop Market Outlook ProAg Meetings

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Presentation on theme: "2013/14 Crop Market Outlook ProAg Meetings"— Presentation transcript:

1 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook ProAg Meetings
Fort Dodge, Waterloo, and Mason City, IA Nov , 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 160.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,989 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824 Imports 8 28 29 162 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,837 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,333 5,200 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 4,900 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,400 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,108 12,950 Ending Stocks 1,887 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,258 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,413 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,685 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 109 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,450 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,098 3,243 Ending Stocks 170 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.15 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Source: USDA-NASS

5 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield
Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 Early Reports on Corn Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

7 Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

8 Early Reports on Soybean Yields
Source: AgWeb.com

9 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

13 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14 Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

15 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

16 Corn Grind for Ethanol

17 Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18 Current Corn Futures 4.45 4.35 4.17 Source: CME Group, 11/12/2013

19 Current Soybean Futures
12.33 11.14 10.97 Source: CME Group, 11/12/2013

20 New Crop Prices

21 Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

22 Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

23 Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

24 Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

25 Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Expected Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

26 Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

27 Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (11/12/13) Corn $6.89 $4.50 $4.17 Soybeans $14.40 $12.15 $12.33

28 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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