Wheat Scenario : Global & India Khalid Khan ITC Limited – Agri Business Division

World Wheat – 2017/18 World wheat production up ~ 11% since 2008-09 with a CAGR of 1% World Wheat consumption up ~ 15% since 2008-09 with a CAGR of 1.5% Ending stocks as on 2017-18 are expected at 268 million MT; 12% up over last year Highest increase in Demand: Asia IGC came out with 2018-19 global production of 742 million MT, a fall of 15 million MT year on year Source: FAO

Market Scan – World Wheat +15% -36% +1% -1% -15% -24% *All figures in million MT *Prices CIF Tuticorin Australia, Canada & USA has seen decline in Production Russia is up by 15% balancing the decline Black Sea prices stable - July to Dec’17 Spread between APW and Ukrainian wheat widened significantly

India Wheat Scenario – 2017/18 Marketable surplus (65%) 64 MMT Remaining 34 MMT retained by farmers for self-consumption and seed purpose Production 98 MMT Govt. 31 MMT Opening: 8 MMT PDS 25.2 MMT OMSS 0.4 MMT Unorganized 18 MMT Organised 15 MMT Bulk processors 11 MMT (Maida) Brand owners 4 MMT (Atta) Carry forward 13.1 MMT

Uttar Pradesh Punjab INDIA : WHEAT 2018/19 Haryana TOP 5 PRODUCERS Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan TOP 5 PRODUCERS Govt purchase price would be 1,735 rupees ($27.10) per 100 kg compared with 1,625 rupees a year ago State-set prices to build stocks to run a mammoth food welfare programme which covers about 75 percent of its 1.3 billion people – Food Subsidy for FY 2018/19 raised to Rs 1.69 Lakh Crs. (21% up from last year) Favorable condition during February’18 to decide the final production numbers (estimated at 93 million MT)

Wheat Crop Outlook – 2018/19 Crop Year 2017 State State wise Target Crop Year 2018 % Inc / - Dec in Production vs. LY Area Production (Lakh Hec) (Lakh MT) 64.22 179.39 Madhya Pradesh 49.06 53.16 148.50 -17% 30.68 89.98 Rajasthan 32.00 30.00 88.00 -2% 100.52 300.58 Uttar Pradesh 99.15 98.13 293.43 9.96 27.43 Gujarat 12.50 10.56 29.08 6% 35.00 164.41 Punjab 34.90 0% 25.38 115.24 Haryana 25.23 25.26 114.70 22.95 50.85 Bihar 23.25 22.87 50.67 10.52 16.72 Maharashtra 10.70 8.96 14.24 -15% 3.39 9.30 West Bengal 1.54 1.16 3.18 -66% 1.74 1.60 Chhattisgarh 1.97 1.65 1.51 -6% 3.59 7.04 H.P. 3.60 7.06 2.31 4.73 J&K 2.45 2.44 5.00 2.08 4.29 Jharkhand 2.41 2.21 4.55 1.57 1.68 Karnataka 2.16 1.89 2.02 20% 8.77 Uttarakhand 3.58 8.74 0.33 1.02 Others 0.60 0.25 0.78 -24% 317.82 983.02 Total 305.10 300.72 935.88 -5% Sowing Completed – 5% Sowing down, 301 Lakh Hec. against 318 Lakh Hec. of LY Considering yield ~ LY, the Production is expected to be 93-94 million MT (Govt. estimates: ~100 million MT)

Government Wheat Stock – Comparison All figures in Lakh MT Stocks as on 1st Jan'17 State Stocks as on 1st Jan'18 % Inc./Dec 2.57 Bihar 3.19 24% 1.72 Delhi 1.95 13% 4.46 Gujarat 2.79 -37% 24.39 Haryana 41.47 70% 19.80 Madhya Pradesh 41.95 112% 33.43 Punjab 52.81 58% 14.77 Rajasthan 12.81 -13% 15.67 Uttar Pradesh 16.90 8% 5.11 West Bengal 6.54 28% 0.14 Assam 0.11 -21% 15.40 Others 15.10 -2% 137.47 Total 195.62 42% Government Opening Stock as on 1st April 2018 estimated at 13.1 million MT Vs 8 million MT as on 1st April 2017

WHEAT IMPORTS 10% Import duty To be reviewed 20% Imported Wheat made the Indian Wheat Price inflation under control FCI off-take through OMSS* did not pick up April – Oct. ’17 To be reviewed February ’18 1.5 million MT wheat imports till date from Ukraine & Australia Govt. may further increase duty to 40% post Wheat procurement, to off-load excess stocks through OMSS 20% November ’17 To boost domestic sowing Prices did not pick up due to huge stocking by Millers *OMSS – Open Market Sale Scheme

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