1. Wheat Scenario: Global & India
Khalid Husain Khan
ITC Limited – Agri Business

2. Wheat 2017
World wheat production has increased by ~ 25% while utilization has increased by 18% over the past 10 years
Ending stocks as on are expected at 244 million MT 54% up from
Highest increase in demand has been seen in Asia; increase is majorly due to increase in population with the per capita demand stable at ~ 66 kg
Source: FAO

3. Global Wheat Scenario
2016/17 Global wheat production likely to be up by 2.5% to 752 MMT
Global supplies estimate to reach new record of 993 MMT; on the back of a high opening stock and production
Consumption forecast at 740 MMT, up 4% from last year
World wheat trade projected at 173 MMT, 3% higher than last year

4. Global Wheat Scenario
Australia and Black Sea have been the major gainer in wheat production over the last year; India has utilised the same in a year with a low crop and imported
19% increase
Imports expected to continue in the coming season from the same origins due to aggressive Govt. buying (~ 32 MMT) in season
35% increase

5. Uttar Pradesh Punjab Haryana TOP 5 STATE PRODUCERS INDIA : WHEAT 2017
Govt purchase price would be 1,625 rupees ($23.98) per 100 kg compared with 1,525 rupees a year ago
State-set prices to build stocks to run a mammoth food welfare programme which covers about 75 percent of its 1.3 billion people.
Favorably cool condition during yield formation could raise production to 90+ million tonnes
Haryana
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan

6. India : Wheat SOWING AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES Area Covered (Lakh Hec)
Last Year Production
State
State wise Target
Area Covered (Lakh Hec)
% Inc / (Dec) vs. LY
Expected Yield
Production (MMT)
2016
2015
3.50
Bihar
23.25
22.92
22.70 1%
1.85
4.24
2.00
Gujarat
11.82
9.96
9.01
11%
2.74
2.73
10.90
Haryana
25.11
25.38
4.44
11.27
13.90
Madhya Pradesh
64.21
62.23
51.84
20%
2.69
16.74
1.10
Maharashtra
10.13
10.34
6.19
67%
1.44
1.49
14.60
Punjab
34.80
35.00
34.97 0%
4.34
15.19
7.80
Rajasthan
31.70
30.68
29.66 3%
2.94
9.02
23.80
Uttar Pradesh
99.00
100.52
94.99 6%
2.64
26.54
0.65
West Bengal
3.45
3.34
-3%
0.67
4.20
Others
15.77
15.18
14.64
31%
1.75
2.66
82.45
Total
319.24
315.55
292.56 8%
2.87
90.54
Sowing has been good for the current season – high monsoon rains, increased MSP and favourable weather
Wheat production expected to touch 90 Million MT
High Govt. buying (~ 32 Million MT) – low closing stocks (~ 6 Million MT)

7. Marketable surplus (70%)
India Wheat Scenario
Remaining 25 MMT retained by farmers for self-consumption and seed sowing
Production 83 MMT
PDS 14.5 MMT
Marketable surplus (70%)
58 MMT
Govt. 23 MMT
Bulk processors
13 MMT (Maida)
PDS
27 MMT
Unorganized
20 MMT
(unbranded bulk atta)
Organized
15 MMT
OMSS
4.4 MMT
Brand owners
2 MMT (Atta)
Carry forward
6.1 MMT

8. ROLE OF GOVERNMENT Particulars Million MT
Govt. Stock as on 1st January’17
13.74
PDS Requirement till 31st March’17
7.14
Remaining stocks
6.60
OMSS allocations after 1st January'17
0.50
Stocks Remaining with Govt. as on 1st April’17
6.10
Buffer Norm
6.46
6.1 MMT being the lowest stock ever. Last year the figure was 14.5 MMT but due to low Govt. procurement and high off-take the stocks have plunged below the buffer norm
Import duty reduced to from 25% to nil by the Govt. - control on inflation – two reductions
OMSS tender prices
MP – July ~ Rs. 18,500 / MT; Nov – Rs. 23,000 / MT and Dec ~ Rs. 19,500 / MT
Delhi – July ~ Rs / MT; Nov ~ Rs. 23,000 / MT and Dec ~ Rs. 18,800 / MT

9. WHEAT IMPORTS To be reviewed 25% to 10% 10% to Nil Import duty
SEPTEMBER ’16
DECEMBER ’16
MARCH ’17
Tariff barriers in order to fend off domestic farmers from global prices
FCI stocks for PDS programmes depleting day by day
To boost domestic supplies as stocks were depleting and prices skyrocketed
First time ever domestic prices touched 23,000 PMT in Delhi market
3.6 MMT wheat imports till date
Major import grades
Australian Premium & Standard Wheat
Red Wheat (Ukraine, Russia, France & Bulgaria)

10. Thank You

11. Government – RICE StockS
Particulars - Rice
Million MT
Govt. Stock as on 1st Jan’17
13.48
Buffer Norm* (1st Jan’17)
7.61
Excess stock - 1st Oct’16
5.87
Actual Buy till 17th Jan’16
18.58
Balance buy plan for KMS
12.42
Consumption requirement (Jan - March)
8.06
Estimated Stock as on 1st April’17
36.42
Commodity
Stocks (Million MT)
Buffer Norm
1st April’16
1st April’17
Rice
22.16
36.42
14.58
Wheat
14.54
6.0
6.46
Total
36.70
42.42
20.06