1. Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops By Directorate of Economics & Statistics Department of Agriculture & Cooperation Ministry of Agriculture New Delhi National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign 20 th & 21 st March 2009, New Delhi

2.  Advance Estimates (27 crops) –First:September/October –Second:January/February –Third:April/May –Fourth:June/July  Final Estimates (44 crops) –Six months after the end of agriculture year System of Release of Estimates of Agriculture Production  The Directorate of Economics & Statistics in the Union Ministry of Agriculture brings out four advance estimates and one final estimate at the national level: Contd…

3. State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs)  State Governments have designated one of its Departments as SASA which is responsible for providing requisite data at prescribed intervals to DES for finalising Advance Estimates.  SASA’s vary from State to State and is one of the following State Departments:  Deptt. of Agriculture  Deptt. of Economics & Statistics  Deptt. of Land Records

4. Validation of Data  DES validates the above data at the national level with input from:  Forecasts given by the Space Applications Center (SAC), Ahmedabad and IEG, New Delhi  Inputs received from the weekly Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meetings  Results of the available Crop Cutting Experiments received from the SASAs/ NSSO for selected crops  Trends in the area, production and yield of different crops during the last 5 years and  Trends in procurement and prices of respective commodities

5. Some Important Issues  Inter State variation in yield rates  Year to year large variations in estimates within the State  Large variations in successive advance estimates and final estimates  Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State  Mismatch between the district wise estimates and State level estimates received from SASA’s  Reliability of the results of the crop-cutting experiments

6. Inter State variation in yield rates (Rice) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Andhra Pradesh 13324.030093111293929843344 Assam 3319.015341460146813321428 Bihar 4418.11523792107514861237 Chattisgarh 5426.614541170133713541446 Gujarat 1474.018911806194918941942 Haryana 3613.027492941305132383361 Jammu & Kashmir 561.319411969215021942133 Jharkhand 3336.416951305115018282018 Karnataka 3717.023752712386824702625 Madhya Pradesh 1461.91018720999824938 Maharashtra 2996.018531425177916801903 Orissa 7540.714961446153115341694 Punjab 10489.036943943385838684019 Tamil Nadu 5040.223082703254634232817 Uttar Pradesh 11780.021871790199618792063 West Bengal 14719.525042574250925932573 All India 96692.920781984210221312202

7. Inter State variation in yield rates (Wheat) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Bihar 4450.417761609161719082058 Gujarat 3838.026812482270024983013 Haryana 10236.039373901384442324158 Madhya Pradesh 6032.518001735161318351612 Maharashtra 2078.711701344139313251659 Punjab 15720.042074221417942104507 Rajasthan 7124.927942839276227512749 Uttar Pradesh 25679.027942502262727212817 All India 78570.227132602261927082802

8. Inter State variation in yield rates (Total Coarse Cereals) State/UT ProductionYield (Kg/Hectare) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Andhra Pradesh 4274.021392026277223053336 Bihar 1498.522962293202125552185 Gujarat 2151.01492108311429281373 Haryana 1357.014861249112415671762 Madhya Pradesh 2122.51401106211509181082 Maharashtra 7093.07468208878951122 Tamil Nadu 1357.11056105498519511943 Uttar Pradesh 3058.913661577138314041454 All India 40750.412211153117211821431

9. Inter State variation in yield rates (Groundnut) States ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 Andhra Pradesh 2604.06608907285571451 Gujarat 3299.0223594317348091777 Karnataka 733.0530766645497807 Maharashtra 472.0115311239588891168 Rajasthan 477.415661552154913101728 Tamil Nadu 1047.615521632177519811957 All India 9182.51357102011878661459

10. Inter State variation in yield rates (Soyabean) STATES ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 Andhra Pradesh173.015691567194915151966 Madhya Pradesh5480.51105835105810061091 Maharashtra3976.01396900107711471492 Rajasthan1071.214001425115012031343 All India10968.21193908107310631235

11. Inter State variation in yield rates (Cotton) STATES ProductionYield ( Kg/Hect. ) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 Andhra Pradesh3491.0384316347381523 Gujarat8276.0417421604625581 Haryana1885.0454568437582663 Maharashtra7015.0190176187253373 Punjab2355.0556697731750663 All India25884.1307318362421467

12. Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State State Production (Lakh Tonnes) 2006-072007-08 DES Cane Commiss ioner DifferenceDES Cane Commiss ioner Difference Uttar Pradesh1339.491586.22-246.731246.651650.00-403.35 Maharashtra785.68834.44-48.76884.37791.0093.37 Tamil Nadu411.24268.36142.88380.71269.00111.71 Karnataka286.70388.00-101.30262.40365.00-102.60 Andhra Pradesh216.92216.000.92202.96196.806.16 Gujarat156.30132.3323.97151.90136.6915.21 Bihar59.56143.60-84.0438.55159.50-120.95 Others299.31249.9149.40314.34364.38-50.04 All-India3555.203818.86-263.663481.883932.37-450.49

13. Suggestions  Crop estimates should not be treated as a routine activity.  The assessment need to be validated by considering rainfall, weather conditions and market behaviour.  A Core Group of officers of concerned departments under the leadership of State Agriculture Secretary may periodically meet to firm up the estimates with other State Agencies before furnishing data to the Central Government Contd…

14.  The Core Group should also liaise with D/Sugar, D/Horticulture, other agriculture input related Deptts. (e.g. Irrigation, Power, Weather, Remote Sensing, Agriculture Research Institute etc.) before finalising estimates of area and production.  States with low yield rates in some crops should scrutinize more closely and validate their assessment.

15. Despite financial support under various schemes in the Agriculture sector, if the productivity is not increasing in some States, what are the reasons?

16. Thanks !!!

17. Inter State variation in yield rates (Gram) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Andhra Pradesh 912.010831012159110851448 Chattisgarh 205.8964542706843874 Gujarat 210.0884803850870977 Madhya Pradesh 1735.0926928926980711 Maharashtra 1116.0530561691706825 Rajasthan 574.2633747443863466 Uttar Pradesh 376.01035910893742745 All India 5748.6811815808845762

18. Inter State variation in yield rates (Pulses) State/UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Andhra Pradesh 1697.0567565772679803 Bihar 497.1814710749722818 Chhattisgarh 536.8608395477543586 Gujarat 743.0748675704593843 Haryana 101.8719793622824602 Jharkhand 301.8508586592686736 Karnataka 1265.0304376487377531 Madhya Pradesh 2453.6761759754780609 Maharashtra 3024.0569492584602746 Orissa 383.5382388416445446 Rajasthan 1552.8590375261462401 All India 14761.5635577598612625

19. Inter State variation in yield rates (Oilseeds) STATES ProductionYied (Kgs./Hect.) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 Andhra Pradesh3390.06347576986091276 Gujarat4725.0190199015449081618 Haryana642.815471176112413441214 Karnataka1549.0412587600478681 Madhya Prd.6352.0104983310099551015 Maharashtra4874.010578179259631274 Rajasthan4197.612391079113411461051 Tamil Nadu1146.713861483162418291739 Uttar Prd.1146.8852861993837856 All India29755.3106488510049161115

20. Inter State variation in yield rates (Sugarcane) STATES/UT ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) 2007-082003-042004-052005-062006-072007-08 1234567 Andhra Pradesh20296.07210574948767658216782170 Bihar3854.94137039460428224595335496 Gujarat15190.07182074072740107303771991 Haryana8860.05800062000644096842963286 Karnataka26240.06582680202834118794485752 Maharashtra88437.05794163194775517489880912 Tamil Nadu38071.091910100845104671105123107484 Uttar Pradesh124665.35554160733582015962657212 Uttaranchal7686.05977360196607335041361984 All India348187.95938064752669196902268877

21. Variation in Production Estimates YearEstimated Production of Foodgrains (Million Tonnes) 2 nd Advance 3 rd Advance 4 th Advance Final Estimate 2006-07209.17211.78216.13217.28 1.25%2.05%0.53% 2007-08219.32227.32230.67230.78 3.65%1.47%0.05% Contd…