1. Population Issues in India in the foreseeable future
Purushottam M Kulkarni
Workshop on
India’s Population:Emerging Dimensions
Under the auspices of
Speaker’s Research Initiative (SRI)
February 7, 2019

2. Population growth in the last century

3. Mortality declined- the death rate fell steadily after 1921 and steeply after but fertility remained moderately high leading to rapid population growth.
Population increased from 24 crores in 1901 to 103 crores in 2001 and then to 121 crores by 2011; the population size more than quadrupled through the twentieth century.
The rate of growth was very high after 1951 and over two percent per annum during
There were fears of ‘population explosion’ and the situation appeared alarming with some panicky reaction;
neo-Malthusian policy measures were introduced .

4. But fertility also began to show decline, especially after 1970
But fertility also began to show decline, especially after The demographic transition has been in progress.
The Total Fertility Rate (the average number of births a woman would have in life time if she survives through the childbearing ages) has fallen to 2.3 in 2016 and has gone below 2 in many states covering about half the national population.
Mortality decline has been continuing; the estimated life expectancy is about 70 years for females and 68 years for males for the recent period.
There is hardly any talk of population explosion now and fears on population explosion are rarely heard.

5. Population size and growth in India, 1901-2011

6. Declines in Crude Birth and Death Rates (per 1000), 1901-2011

7. What is likely to happen in the foreseeable future
What is likely to happen in the foreseeable future? Population Projections

8. India is approaching replacement level low fertility and mortality.
The growth rate has already slowed down and is projected to fall further.
Various projections show that further growth would not be large.
India’s population may reach a level close to 170 crores, perhaps lower, in the 2060s and then begin to decline slowly.

9. Principal results of projections for India, up to 2061
Population Size (in crores)
Age distribution (%)
CBR
CDR
RNI
Year
Male
Female
Persons
0-14
15-64
65+
(per 1000)
(annual %)
2001 53 50
103
35.4
59.8
4.8
25.4
8.3
1.71
2011 62 59
121
30.9
63.7
5.5
21.8
7.1
1.47
2016 67 63
129
28.0
65.9
6.1
19.7
7.0
1.27
2021 71
137
25.7
67.6
6.7
18.2
1.12
2026 74 70
144
24.1
68.5
7.4
16.5
0.94
2031 77
151
22.4
69.1
8.5
14.7
7.3
0.74
2036 79 76
155
20.7
69.5
9.8
13.4
7.6
0.58
2041 81 78
159
19.1
69.6
11.3
12.5
8.0
0.45
2046 83 80
162
17.9
69.2
12.9
11.9
8.6
0.33
2051
165
17.1
68.3
14.6
11.4
9.3
0.21
2056 84 82
166
67.0
10.7
9.9
0.08
2061
15.9
65.5
18.7
10.2
10.6
-0.04

11. Changes in Age Structure and Demographic Dividend

12. The age structure of population has been changing and will change further
The population has begun to age and will continue to age
The share of young age population will fall and that of old ages, 60+ or 65+ , will rise steadily
The share of middle ages will rise for some time

13. Projected percentage age distribution, India, up to 2061

14. Projected trends in broad age distribution, India, up to 2061

15. Population pyramid, India, 2011 (populations in millions)

16. Projected population pyramid, India, 2031 (populations in millions)

17. Projected population pyramid, India, 2061 (populations in millions)

18. Window of Demographic Opportunity
The share of population in working ages, or is projected to rise.
This will lower the dependency ratio yielding the ‘demographic dividend’, or demographic opportunity.
The dependency ratio has fallen below 67 percent (two-thirds) and will remain so up to 2050s. The peak dividend will accrue in through the 2020s and 2030s.
The window will begin to close after that.

19. Projected trend in dependency ratio (percent) of population in ages 0-14 and 60+ (young and old ages) to population in ages (working ages), up to 2061

20. Regional variations in population growth

21. The demographic transition, decline in mortality and fertility, has not been uniform across states and regions
Some regions, especially the southern states, north-western states, Maharashtra and West Bengal are ahead in the transition
Such staggered transition has implications in terms of residual growth, variations in growth over time, and the timing of the window of demographic opportunity
Some states will reach the stage of zero growth around 2040 whereas some will continue to grow beyond 2060
The shares of states in the national population will change

22. Population (in crores)
Projected populations 2061, large states, (without inter-state migration)
Population (in crores)
2061 Broad age distribution (percent)
2061 Vital rates
Growth
2001
2011
2061
2001 to 2061
State
0-14
15-64
65+
CBR
CDR
RNI (%)
(crores) ( %)
India
102.86
121.08
165.69
15.9
65.5
18.7
10.2
10.6
-0.04
62.83
61.1
AP & Telangana
7.62
8.46
9.61
14.3
62.4
23.3
9.1
13.1
-0.39
1.99
26.1
Assam
2.67
3.12
4.34
16.7
66.3
17.1 11
11.2
-0.02
1.68
62.9
Bihar
8.30
10.41
19.53
19.1
68.4
12.5
12.3
7.4
0.49
11.23
135.3
Chhattisgarh
2.08
2.55
3.62
16.8
0.06
1.54
73.9
Delhi
1.39
12.7
60.1
27.2 8
12.2
-0.42
0.61
43.9
Gujarat
5.07
6.04
7.97 16
64.1
19.9
10.4
-0.08
2.90
57.2
Haryana
2.11
2.54
3.29
15.3
63.8
20.8
10.1
11.3
-0.12
1.17
55.4
Himachal Pradesh
0.69
0.76 13
61.5
25.4
8.2
12.6
-0.44
0.15
24.9
Jammu & Kashmir
1.01
1.25
1.61
13.4 64
22.6 9
0.60
58.9
Jharkhand
2.69
3.30
4.96
67.4
15.8
10.9
9.6
0.13
2.27
84.2
Karnataka
5.29
6.11
7.00
13.9
62.5
23.6
8.9
12.8
1.72
32.5
Kerala
3.18
3.34
3.57
13.5
60.3
26.2
8.5 12
-0.35
0.38
Madhya Pradesh
6.03
7.26
11.16
17.4
67.2
11.4
9.9
0.16
5.12
84.9
Maharashtra
9.69
11.24
12.81
12.9
61.6
25.5
8.1
-0.41
32.2
Odisha
3.68
4.20
5.17
64.8
19.2
-0.15
1.49
40.5
Punjab
2.44
2.77
3.03
60.7
26.6
7.9
-0.49
24.6
Rajasthan
5.65
6.85
10.80 17
66.7
16.3
0.2
5.15
91.1
Tamil Nadu
6.24
7.21
7.47
60.8
26.3
-0.57
1.23
19.7
Uttar Pradesh
16.62
19.98
32.39
68.1
14.5
9.2
15.77
94.9
Uttrakhand
0.85
1.26
13.6
22.2
8.6
-0.23
0.42 49
West Bengal
8.02
9.13
10.32
13.3
62.1
24.7
-0.43
2.30
28.7

23. Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, very large states (without inter-state migration)

24. Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, large states (without inter-state migration)

25. Projected populations (in millions) up to 2061, moderate sized states (w/o inter-state migration)

26. Projected trends in shares of states, 2001 to 2061 (without inter-state migration)
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
2061
AP & Telengana
7.4
7.0
6.7
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
Assam
2.6
Bihar
8.1
8.6
9.1
9.9
10.5
11.1
11.8
Chhattisgarh
2.0
2.1
2.2
Delhi
1.3
1.4
1.2
Gujarat
4.9
5.0
4.8
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
0.6
0.5
Jammu & Kashmir
1.0
Jharkhand
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
Karnataka
5.1
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.2
Kerala
3.1
2.4
2.3
Madhya Pradesh
5.9
6.3
6.5
6.6
Maharashtra
9.4
9.3
8.9
8.3
8.0
7.7
Odisha
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
Punjab
1.9
1.8
Rajasthan
5.5
5.7
6.1
Tamil Nadu
5.6
5.3
Uttar Pradesh
16.2
16.5
17.3
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
Uttarakhand
0.8
West Bengal
7.8
7.5
7.2
Remaining
1.6
India
100

27. Projected trends in Various Regions (population in crores)

28. Projected trends in Various Regions (population shares in percent)

29. Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (population in crores)

30. Projected Trends in Decadal Growth in Various Regions (percentage shares)

31. Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states leading in transition

32. Projected trends in dependency ratio, large states lagging in transition

33. Phases of demographic dividend, large states

34. THANK YOU