Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Outlook Sept. 14, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.9 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 169.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,184 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,350 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,585 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,120 5,425 5,475 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,435 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,422 1,435 1,450 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,295 1,850 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,590 14,250 Ending Stocks 2,335 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.35 3.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 89.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 49.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,431 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 345 Imports 72 33 24 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,801 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,895 1,940 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 118 136 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,170 2,250 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,183 4,326 Ending Stocks 475 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 4 4
Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 5 5
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 6 6
Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 7 7
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10
U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11
Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.
Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.
Source: USDA/AMS
U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Jun 2017 (Carcass Wt Basis) Jun-17/May-17 Jun-17/Jun-16 Year-to-Date Country Percent 1,000 lbs Japan -15% -7% 27,995 5% Mexico -8% 20% 176,550 25% Canada -13% -11% -2,631 -1% South Korea -19% 29% 72,110 33% China (Mainland) -25% -37% -73,926 Hong Kong 10% 2% -11,410 -14% Australia 16% 7,620 8% Philippines 7% 9,335 27% China (Taiwan) -23% 46% 7,468 84% Colombia 86% 37,967 88% Honduras -27% -9% 1,019 3% Dominican Republic -35% 92% 20,887 57% Guatemala -22% 19% -251 Chile -28% 294% 22,946 188% Other Countries -18% 15,170 18% Total 4% 310,850 12% WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs 2017: 5,753 (+10%) 2018: 5,965 (+4%) Source: USDA/ERS
LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (8/13/17) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC
Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs
Year-over-Year Prices: Corn
Year-over-Year Prices: Soy Meal
2013 = +$6.21 [-$25.60 to +$24.57] 2014 = +$61.85 [+$13.15 to +$107.25] 2015 = +$7.93 [-$18.40 to +$26.25] 2016 = -$1.26 [-$35.52 to +$32.92] 2017f = +$15.91 [-$7.38 to +$47.62] 2018f = +$5.63 [-$14.69 to +$24.62]
Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Latest Data: July 2017 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Advance Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Advance Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Current Corn Futures 3.94 3.56 Source: CME Group, 9/13/2017
Current Soybean Futures 9.66 9.54 Source: CME Group, 9/13/2017
2017/18 Crop Margins
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/