Kenya’s INDC: Actions in the Energy Sector INDC Sector Meeting Energy Sector 5th February 2016 StARCK+ Technical Assistance Component

Overview Mitigation Adaptation Discussion Questions Baseline Emission Projections INDC Target for Energy Sector Mitigation Options in the SNC Key Mitigation Technologies Adaptation Discussion Questions

Baseline Emissions Projection Energy supply emissions are emissions that are generated from the production of electricity as there are currently no other domestic sources of primary fossil fuel energy (such as natural gas, coal and crude oil). Energy demand emissions are emissions related to the combustion of fossil fuels by residential and commercial energy end-users but do not include energy use in transport and industry that are addressed through the Industry and Transport factsheets.

Baseline Emissions Projection Baseline electricity generation emissions account for less than 2% of total national emissions and are smaller than emissions from residential and commercial energy demand. projections are that electricity generation emissions will account for more than 30% of total national emissions in 2030 as there is expected to be a considerable addition of coal and natural gas generation capacity over the next fifteen-year period. GHG emissions are projected to rise from 6.1 MtCO2e in 2015 to 48.2 MtCO2e in 2030. The vast majority of the emission increase (93%) is related to new fossil fuel electricity generation projects.

Baseline Electricity Generation Capacity Type of generating capacity that is expected to be installed today and out to 2030 in the baseline.

Comparison of 2030 Baseline Emissions and INDC Target Emission Reductions (MtCO2e) Identifies a a reasonable 2030 target for emission reductions in the energy sector and bounds this target with a low and high range that could be reasonably expected to achieve the overall 30% emission reduction target. Illustrates a target emission reduction of 12.3 MtCO2e for the Energy Supply and Residential and Commercial Energy Demand Sector. This is equivalent to a 25% reduction in 2030 baseline energy emissions.

Mitigation Options in the SNC

Mitigation Options in the SNC Flexibility and not necessary to implement all 12 options – many scenarios to achieve 12.38 MtCO2e If top mitigation option in each sub-sector fully implemented, this could achieve 19.3 MtCO2e in 2030 If geothermal option that envisions that envisions 2,775 Megawatts (MW) of additional geothermal capacity (total of 5,510 MW in 2030) could not be implemented - the top 7 mitigation options with the next highest technical mitigation potential would need to be fully implemented Choosing appropriate mitigation actions will require a balancing of priorities

Mitigation Options in the SNC Will be necessary to address cookstoves in a substantive way. At a minimum biomass cookstoves need to improve 10% from the baseline average efficiency by 2030 to deliver emission reductions in line with the overall technical potential of energy demand mitigation options. Improvements greater than 10% from the baseline average efficiency substantially reduce the need to implement a wide range of other mitigation options such energy efficiency improvements in lighting or industry.

Key Mitigation Technologies: Electricity Generation To meet future demand for electricity and keep the average emission intensity of the grid low enough to meet the INDC target will require the substantial deployment of renewable energy technologies. Main sources of technical potential are geothermal, wind, hydro and grid connected solar photovoltaic (either distributed or from central plants). Geothermal as best suited to provide the bulk of additional renewable potential between 2015 and 2030. 5,500 MW of geothermal capacity to be installed by 2030, up from 573 MW installed in July 2015.

Key Mitigation Technologies: Electricity Generation Consider a mixed renewable portfolio approach that balances regional resources, transmission and distribution requirements, investment costs, technical barriers and specific grid demands. Will be necessary to restrict fossil fuel generation capacity to below 7,000 MW Another approach would be to to ensure that any new coal generation capacity installed was ultra super critical technology (i.e., clean coal). E.g., 5,000 MW of clean coal was installed in lieu of 5,000 MW baseline coal – emissions reduced by approximately 2.4 MtCO2e

Key Mitigation Technologies: Energy Demand Charcoal and wood cookstoves estimated to consume 13 million tonnes of wood annually Achieving a 10% improvement over the baseline would require a minimum of 20% penetration of improved cookstoves that are 50% more efficient by 2030. Efficient lighting initiatives can be undertaken in both residential and commercial sectors by replacing inefficient incandescent lighting or T8 fluorescent lighting with more efficient CFL or LED alternatives.

Key Mitigation Technologies

Adaptation Kenya’s INDC emphasizes adaptation and identified priority actions drawing on the National Adaptation Plan 2105-2030 (NAP). Main action in the energy sector is to “enhance implementation of an energy generation mix plan that increases the resilience of the current and future energy systems to the impacts of future climate variability and change.” The NAP notes that Kenya has had heavy reliance on hydropower for energy production, which has recently demonstrated vulnerability to extreme climate events such as droughts and floods.

Adaptation NAP recommends incorporation of climate change considerations into current and future sectoral actions to build a resilient energy system that reinforces Kenya’s development. Climate resilient actions include: improved use of weather and climate information in energy infrastructure development, and research to identify designs and materials that enhance the resilience of energy infrastructure.

Priority Adaptation Actions in the Energy Sector

Discussion Does the INDC analysis reflect the current action and planning in the energy sector? Does the BAU scenario closely represent reality as of now or is some adjustment necessary? How does the energy sector plan to reach the INDC target? What are the barriers and opportunities to deeper emission reductions in the energy sector?   How does the energy engage with and create ownership of actions with stakeholders, other government departments and county governments?

Kenya’s INDC Mitigation - 30% emissions reductions by 2030 from BAU scenario. Based on Kenya’s NCCAP Adaptation - enhanced resilience to climate change towards the attainment of Vision 2030. Based on Kenya’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Subject to international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.

Mitigation Contribution The Second National Communication determined that Kenya’s projected emissions for 2030 are 143 MTCO2e. Kenya has potential to reduce projected emissions by 86 MTCO2e. The INDC mitigation target is half this potential or 43 MTCO2e. Composite abatement potential for all sectors for Kenya (technical potential) in MTCO2eq Source: Government of Kenya (2015), Second National Communication, page 172.

Mitigation Contribution The