1. Revis James Director Energy Technology Assessment Center 2010 AABE Conference May 20, 2010 Creating a Low-Carbon Future EPRI’s 2009 Prism- MERGE Study

2. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2009 Prism – U.S. Electricity Sector 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 199019952000200520102015202020252030 U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Efficiency Renewables Nuclear CCS Fossil Efficiency Electro- Technologies PEV 41% below 2005 58% below 2005 EIA 2009 baseline

3. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The CO 2 Challenge Billion tons CO 2 Historical Emissions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990200020102020203020402050 U.S. Electric Sector Remainder of U.S. Economy 83% Reduction in CO 2 emissions below 2005 Assumed Economy-wide CO 2 Reduction Target (with no international offsets) 2005 = 5982 mmT CO 2 2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO 2 ) 1017 mmT CO 2

4. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. MERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Coal Gas Wind Demand Reduction New Coal + CCS Coal Gas Wind Nuclear Demand Reduction Nuclear Solar Biomass Hydro CCS Retrofit Biomass Hydro

5. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Technology Insights from Economic Analyses Aggressive energy efficiency will be needed under most scenarios. Substantial renewables generation (e.g. >20%) will occur. Combined generation from nuclear and coal will exceed 50% for several decades.

6. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020203020402050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 160% 50% 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Substantial increases in the cost of electricity BAU U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost * * Based on estimate of expected business as usual annual investment in generation expansion. Source: “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010-2030”, The Edison Foundation, 2008 (www.edisonfoundation.net) and U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration 2008 Annual Energy Outlook.

7. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) Cost of Electricity De-Carbonization 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 MERGE De-carbonization Results 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70 2007 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

8. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Electrification under an 80% below policy Electricity share of final energy demand (indexed to 2000) Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio

9. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Critical Conclusions With achievement of aggressive but technically feasible levels of technology performance and deployment, annual U.S. electric sector CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 41% by 2030. An optimal technical and economic strategy is comprised of aggressive end-use efficiency and a diverse generation technology portfolio. All technologies are not yet ready - focused, sustained research, development and demonstration over the next 20 years is necessary. Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent shape the electricity future of 2050.

10. © 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Image from NASA Visible Earth