1. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Enhancement of Energy Efficiency Policies and Renewable Energy Sources in the Mediterranean region, a roadmap for a sustainable development ALMEE

2. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

3. The Global Context in MENA countries (SEMCs ) High demographic growth High socio-economic development Strong urbanisation Trends are expected to pursue ( at least,at medium term) Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

4. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

5. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

6. The Energy Context in MENA countries High energy demand growth Higher electricity demand growth Still 15 Million have no access to electricity in MENA countries. Energy largely subsidised in most of MENA countries Energy resources unequally available and largely used Concern about energy supply RE sources (Hydro, Solar, Wind, Biomass ) are abundant but not yet significantly developed Increase of environmental concerns: Energy consumed is mainly very pollutant oil derivatives,Co2 emissions, acid rain,… Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

7. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

8. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

9. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

10. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Two Scenarios for Energy Demand Growth From 2007 (Base Year) to 2025 - First one : Business as Usual (BaU) based on national energy strategies currently adopted: The prospect of significant increases in supply dominate energy policies -Second One: Alternative scenario For each scenario, the drivers of Energy Demand growth are Economic Development (4% per year as average) and Demographic Change: the stabilization of population in NMCs & an increase of 25% (2007-2025 ) in the SEMCs ( 1.2 % per year) N.B. Sources of Data : Plan Bleu, OME ALMEE

11. State of the Energy in 2007: -Energy Demand: 955 Mtoe 80% Fossil fuels, Res (including Hydro) Less than 7% -8% of the World Energy Consumption -Electricity Power : 450MW -CO2 Emissions: 8% of global -CO2 Emissions:2/3 by the NMCs Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

12. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

13. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 BaU scenario by 2025 : Mediterranean Region -Primary energy Demand: 1457 Mtoe with a total increase of 50% compared to 2007 and 2.4% annual increase -Fossil fuels share will increase for the Mediterranean Region mainly Oil and Natural Gas and its share will represent 84% (34% for Natural Gas) -Res Share will decrease and will represent 6% of total primary energy demand ALMEE

14. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

15. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Global Energy Dependence in % 20072025 Mediterranean Region3835 MENA Countries 8090 NMCs70 ALMEE

16. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 BaU scenario By 2025 : The dependence on fossil fuels levels will be about 35% for the Mediterranean Region The region has to import 39% of its oil needs and 28% of its natural gas ALMEE

17. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 BaU scenario By 2025 : MENA Region -In SEMCs, the energy demand growth will be four times higher than NMCs. -Their share(SEMCs )of total consumption will rise from 30% to 42% -Considerable growth in electricity Consumption with a three-fold increase for all SEMCs ALMEE

18. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

19. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

20. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 The Alternative Scenario: : a roadmap for a sustainable development The enhancement of energy efficiency policies, promoting clean technologies and effective mobilization of renewable energy in the Mediterranean region ALMEE

21. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 The Alternative scenario: Main Elements -The economic growth is more sustained than in the BaU one: 5% per year for SEMCs and 2.1 % for NMCs -The progress of National Policies on Energy Efficiency: DSM - Effective mobilization of renewable energy (REs) -Development of regional cooperation mainly throw the MSP -Technological Development & Promoting clean technologies -Significant reduction of Energy subsidies ALMEE

22. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE The Alternative scenario In 2025 : -The Primary Energy will be limited to almost 1160 Mtoe instead of 1450 Mtoe : reduction of 20%

23. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 The Alternative scenario In 2025 : -The total energy saved will reach 290Mtoe/yr -Oil shares reaches 35% which when applied to a reduced overall demand will be equivalent to the stabilization at 2007 levels when BaU scenario estimates a 43% increase on 2007 -For N.G. the decrease will reach almost a third of current demand -This fall of energy demand implies reductions of hydrocarbon imports equivalent to a 10 point drop of the index of energy dependency throughout the Mediterranean countries ALMEE

24. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 The Res policies of this scenario assume a deep penetration of electricity based on Res: In the Electricity Mix, Res will reach 10% (excluding hydro) and a capacity of 35000MW -The Electricity Demand will be less than 2280TWh instead of 3000TWh(for the BaU scenario) : reduction of 23% -117 thermal plants of 500MW could be avoided or postponed ALMEE

25. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 CO2 Emissions: In 2007 The region emission: 8% of global CO2 NMCs: 2/3 But Their growth in SEMCs is two time faster In 2025 based on BaU scenario Co2 emissions are expected to reach: -1740Mt in NMCs -1550Mt in SEMCs (double comparing to 2007) ALMEE

26. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Alternative scenario: GHG emissions will drop by 25% 800Mt Co2 avoided The contribution of the region to CO2 global emission would remain below 7% ALMEE

27. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

28. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE Choucran

29. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010

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31. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE

32. Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 ALMEE