1. Canadian Energy Research Institute
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Canada through Electrification of Energy Services
Allan Fogwill
November 2016
Relevant • Independent • Objective

2. Canadian Energy Research Institute
Overview
Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profit research Institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors.
Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public.

3. Current Sponsors
Supporters include:
In-kind support is also provided:

4. Introduction
Electrification of end use energy services is seen as a “technology path” to economy wide GHG emissions resections
Manage emissions in hundreds of point sources – not several thousands of distributed emitters (buildings, vehicles, etc.)
Proven technology exists to decarbonize power generation
Such an economy wide energy transition requires:
changing the existing infrastructure across all sectors of the economy (infrastructure inertia)
much larger electricity generation and transmission infrastructure than today

5. Why Electrify ? A "Technology Path" for decarbonization
Deeper emissions reductions require major transformations in way we source final energy services
RCP 3PD/2.6 represents emissions trajectory that aligns with 1.5 degree global temperature stabilization.
In order to follow that emissions path, carbon intensity of energy as well as energy intensity of the economy need to go down significantly by end of the century
We are looking at an energy system that is very different that today.
Figure source: Van Vuuren, P., et al. “The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview.” Climatic Change 109

6. Why Electrify ? Technology push
Evolution of the global electric car stock,
Source: IEA Global EV Outlook, 2016
Source: CERI

7. Objectives
To assess economic and environmental impacts of electrifying energy end use services in Canada:
10 provinces
3 sectors: residential, commercial, passenger transportation
We focus on energy end use services that can be electrified by utilizing commercially ready technologies or ones that can be commercialized within a decade or less

8. Main Research Questions
Is it technically feasible?
With proven technologies
What major transitions in the energy systems are required?
How deeper the emissions reductions that can be achieved through electrification of energy services?
What would it cost?
This presentation is based on Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic provinces

9. Methods A stock-rollover model that simulates physical infrastructure
Annual time steps with equipment lifetimes:
Simulate energy consumption at an aggregated level (housing stock, vehicle stock, etc. )
Takes into account infrastructure inertia
Build scenarios to explore emissions reduction options
We mainly use a stock-rollover methodology that simulate physical infrastructure
Simulate energy consumption at an aggregated level (housing stock, vehicle stock, etc. )
Build scenarios to explore emissions reduction options

10. Methods: Scenarios

11. Residential Sector Stock Rollover Model
Track (by type and vintage) and simulate the infrastructure rollover & energy demand in four housing types and 4 energy end use services

12. Transportation Sector
Due to data limitations, passenger road transportation sector energy consumption is tracked by vehicle miles travelled by mode of transportation and by fuel

13. Illustrative Stock Rollover Example
Energy service demand x
Energy service demand

14. Mitigation measures: Electrification
Residential sector: Full stock rollover model, electrification implemented
Commercial sector: Partial stock rollover model (by service sector & energy demand), electrification implemented
Passenger transportation: Partial stock rollover model (by mode of transportation), electrification implemented
Freight transportation: No electrification
Industrial: No electrification

15. Results

16. Residential Sector: Fuel demand

17. Road Passenger Transportation: Fuel demand

18. Commercial Sector: Fuel demand

19. Electricity Demand: Electrified Sectors
x 2 times
x 1.5 times
x 2.5 times

20. Emissions & Cost

21. GHG Emissions: Electrified Demand Sectors

22. GHG Emissions: All Demand Sectors
Majority of demand side emissions are from non electrified sectors (ie. industrial, freight transportation)

23. Mitigated and Remaining Emissions
Emissions reductions achievable by electrifying following sectors:
Remaining emissions are from industrial, freight transportation, electricity, and not electrified stock of residential, commercial, and passenger transportation sectors

24. What Would it Cost (in Alberta)?
By 2050, Under electrification scenario, electricity generation infrastructure is 2 times that of BAU scenario
Scenario
Demand side
Electricity supply
Cumulative cost of electricity1 (billion 2014 CAD)
Cumulative GHG emissions2 (million tCO2eq)
Cost of avoided GHG emissions3 (CAD/tCO2eq)
Increase in average cost of electricity in 2050 (% of S0) S0
Not electrify
BAU
108
7551 S1
Electrify
High renewables
244
(126% higher than S0)
6992
(7% lower than S0)
198
33% S2
High renewables + GAS CCS
234
(118% higher than S0)
7008
186
28%
0.4%/ year
0.9%/ year
1 Cumulative cost of adding new capacity and operating electricity infrastructure in the period of
2 In the period of
3 Calculated by taking into account capital cost of demand side mitigation measures and fuel cost savings.

25. What Would it Cost (in Ontario)?
By 2050, Under electrification scenario, electricity generation infrastructure is 2.4 times that of BAU scenario
Scenario
Demand side
Electricity supply
Cumulative cost of electricity1 (billion 2014 CAD)
Cumulative GHG emissions2 (million tCO2eq)
Cost of avoided GHG emissions3 (CAD/tCO2eq)
Increase in average cost of electricity in 2050 (% of S0) S0
Not electrify
BAU
100
5022 S1
Electrify
High renewables
271
(170% higher than S0)
3898
(22% lower than S0) 50
47% S2
High renewables + GAS CCS
No improvement
0.4%/ year
0.9%/ year
1 Cumulative cost of adding new capacity and operating electricity infrastructure in the period of
2 In the period of
3 Calculated by taking into account capital cost of demand side mitigation measures and fuel cost savings.

26. What Would it Cost (in Atlantic Canada)?
By 2050, Under electrification scenario, electricity generation infrastructure is 1.5 times that of BAU scenario
Scenario
Demand side
Electricity supply
Cumulative cost of electricity1 (billion 2014 CAD)
Cumulative GHG emissions2 (million tCO2eq)
Cost of avoided GHG emissions3 (CAD/tCO2eq)
Increase in average cost of electricity in 2050 (% of S0) S0
Not electrify
BAU 29
902 S1
Electrify
High renewables 54
(86% higher than S0)
764
(15% lower than S0) 14
48% S2
High renewables + GAS CCS
No improvement
0.4%/ year
0.9%/ year
1 Cumulative cost of adding new capacity and operating electricity infrastructure in the period of
2 In the period of
3 Calculated by taking into account capital cost of demand side mitigation measures and fuel cost savings.

27. Concluding Remarks
Electrification provides a viable option to decarbonize residential, commercial, and passenger transportation sectors with current technologies
Industrial sector remains the most significant contributor – we did not assess mitigation measures
Electrification will profoundly transform the physical energy system
Level of end-use energy services remains relatively unchanged

28. Concluding Remarks Cumulative emissions (2020-2050) reductions are:
AB: 7%, ON: 22%, Atlantic Canada: 15%
Viability of electrification as an emissions reduction measure depends largely on decarbonizing the power sector
Coal to standard gas transition is not sufficient
Availability Gas CCS lowered the abatement cost and total cost in Alberta
Deeper reductions require mitigation measures in the industrial sector, freight transportation and further decarburization of the electricity sector

29. Canadian Energy Research Institute Thank you for your time
Study will be out at the end of November
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