Population Analysis

Brainstorm How does a population impact its immediate environment? Vice versa?

Objective: SWBAT Identify the concept of demographics(/demography) Explain population’s impact on geography and vice versa Identify different ways of representing populations in the world

What is Demography? Demography – The scientific study of population statistics

What is Demography? Population statistics  Spatial distribution  Sex  Race  Income Level  Age  Etc. Also studies how populations change over time

How has geography impacted human population? The Ancient World

How has geography impacted human population? The key is water  Water sources  Irrigation  Trade routes The river basins are the most important aspect of ancient civilization, but what about today?

Today’s population concentrations

Representing population Dot maps – each dot on the map represents a decided population

Let’s Practice… Create a dot map for the population of the United States. When the map is done, at the bottom of the page answer this question (in complete scentences):  How has the natural geography of the area impacted the distribution of the population

Brainstorm What is the total population of:  The World?  The United Kingdom?  The United States?  China?  Virginia?  Stafford?

Brainstorm The World - ~7.1 Billion The UK – 63.2 Million The USA - ~313.9 Million China – 1.35 Billion Virginia – 8.2 Million Stafford - ~134 Thousand Do these numbers surprise any of you?

Objective: SWBAT Identify the largest population centers in the world Analyze current trends in world population growth Explain the difference between arithmetic and physiological density Explain the concept of carrying capacity

Where ARE these People?

World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 7.1 billion on planet as of Oct. 5, 2013 Current Population Counter Five most populous regions and countries~ According to the 2000 Census REGIONPOPULATIONCOUNTRYPOPULATION E..Asia1.5 billionChina1.254 billion S. Asia1.2 billionIndia986 million Europe750 millionU.K million SE Asia500 millionIndonesia206 million EN Am. 120 millionBrazil16.8 million

Carrying Capacity The maximum number of people a region can reasonably sustain.

East Asia 1/5 of the world’s population lives in this area Eastern China, Japan, The Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Concentrated on the Pacific coast and fertile river valleys  Yangtze and Huang He China’s west is largely desert and sparsely populated  2/3 of Chinese live in rural areas  3/4 of Japanese and Koreans live in cities

South Asia 1/5 of the world’s population India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka Concentrated along the Ganges and Indus rivers and the coastline 3/4 of the population lives in rural areas

Europe 750 million The Only non-Asian area in the major centers Many countries of varying size 4/5 of the population live in urban centers

SE Asia ~500 Million people Includes the series of islands off the coast of the Continent Density make up similar to China  Most are rural  Concentrated along river valleys and coast lines

Types of Density Arithmetic Density  The number of people divided by the total land area Physiological Density  The number of people divided by the total amount of ARABLE land  US 172/mi 2  Egypt 2,580/mi 2

Discussion How does the physiological density of the United States impact the foods we eat? How would that compare to a LDC with a lower carrying capacity, i.e. Egypt? Why do you see higher rates of obesity and diabetes in more economically depressed areas?

Wrap Up Stafford County Public Schools wishes to improve school lunches with an emphasis on fresh produce. After reading this article what pros-cons do you foresee with this policy change?

Brainstorm What are the characteristics of a developed nation vs a LDC?

Objective: SWBAT Identify the important vocabulary of population growth theory (CBR, CDR, TFR,IMR, Natural Increase and Doubling Time Analyze geographic factors that impact population growth and the development of countries

Population Characteristics Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – Total number of live births per 1,000 people in a society Crude Death Rate (CDR) – Total number of deaths in a year per 1,000 people in a society Natural Increase – The percentage growth of a population per year  CBR-CDR

2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age. AfricaFertility Rate U.K. Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. Palestinian Territories Fertility Rate

Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

Birth Control Programs One family/one child policies  Female infanticide  Social compensation fees Sterilization Loss of status Termination healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy

World Death Rates Infectious diseases  HIV/AIDS  SARS Degenerative diseases  Obesity  Tobacco use Epidemiology-the study of the patterns, causes, and effects of health and disease conditions in defined populations. Epidemiological transition-is a phase of development witnessed by a sudden and stark increase in population growth rates brought about by medical innovation in disease or sickness therapy and treatment, followed by a re-leveling of population growth from subsequent declines in fertility rates.

Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

Rates of Natural Increase

Doubling Times The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today. World = 50 U.S. = 34 MDC = 543 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22 Belize = 19 Denmark = 700 Russia = never?

How do we track population growth or decline? By creating population pyramids!

Population pyramids allow demographers and geographers to interpret the dynamics of populations. Population pyramids are bar graphs that illustrate the proportions of males and females in age categories for a given population. They show if a population is growing (through birth and immigration) or declining (through death and emigration).

Practice: LDC v MDC Using Population Pyramids predict whether a country is an LDC or an MDC?

Wrap Up Which pyramid would the United States more closely resemble?

Objective: SWBAT Explain the population theories of Condorcet and Malthus Define and analyze the Demographic Transition Model Analyze different countries position in the demographic transition model

(1743 – 1794) predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family believed that society was perfectible Jean Antoine Condorcet

Thomas Malthus on Population Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person. Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable. An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

Demographic Transition Model Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)  Crude birth/death rate high  Fragile, but stable, population Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)  Lower death rates  Infant mortality rate falls  Natural increase very high Stage three (attitudes change)  Indicative of richer developed countries  Higher standards of living/education  Crude birth rate finally falls Stage four  Crude birth/death rates low  Population stable  Populations aging

Demographic Transition Model

Problems with the Demographic Transition Model based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3