1. Unit II: Fundamentals of Population

2. What is Population Geography?
Demography:  The statistics relating to population geography
Population Geography:  How people live, how they interact with one another, how they use the land, what pressure on resources exist, and what the future may bring; answers questions of where? And why there?

4. Satellite Monitoring of Artificial Light
Make note of the “Developed World”

5. Key Issues in Population Geography
What are the Issues?
Population growth (esp. in developing world)
Food supply
Health
Status of women
Migration

6. Elements of Population Geography
Population and space
Humanity has always been unevenly distributed over the land
Contrasts between crowded cities and empty reaches have intensified during the 20th c.
In technologically advanced countries, people tend to cluster in cities and towns

7. Population Distribution & Density
Distribution of population describes the locations on Earth's surface where individuals or groups live
Dot maps efficiently show distribution of populations

8. World Population Distribution Dot Map

9. Arithmetic Density
Arithmetic Density –divide the area of a country by the total population; a numerical average
Not accurate because it does not include clustering within a country
Does not represent empty areas

10. Arithmetic Density

11. Physiological Density
Physiologic density - number of people per unit of agriculturally productive land
More useful than arithmetic density
Gives the real situation in terms of cultivable land and the growing pressure on it
Excludes agriculturally non-productive land

12. Physiological Density
Reflects the “burden of dependency” - the proportion of persons under 15 and over 65 who are economically dependent on working members aged 15 to 64

13. Physiological Density

14. Physiologic Population Density
Luxor, Egypt
Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley.
Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

15. Global and National Patterns

16. East Asia Contains more than a 1/4 of the world's population
China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6 billion
Most people live along coastlines, river basins and lowlands
Dominant activity is farming

17. Japan Very limited farmlands High population density
Prosperous and well-fed people because of:
(1) High technological prowess
(2) Industrial capacity
(3) Money-producing exports

18. South Asia
Ganges River in India has one of the great concentrations of people on Earth
Bangladesh
More than 120 million people in area size of Iowa
Nearly all people are farmers
India
Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion people)

19. Contains about 700 million people
Europe
Contains about 700 million people
Population distribution as compared to Asia
Large populations found in countries near coal fields
Dense populations in mountainous, rugged countries
More people live in cities
Rural countryside more open and not as populated

20. North America
Not as densely populated as Europe and Asia, more spread out
Rural areas less populated
Like Europe, population concentrated in major cities

21. Other regions
South America and Australia seem to have space remaining for pop. Growth and distribution
Pockets of Africa are very dense while other parts are sparsely populated due to physical barriers
Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66 million inhabitants
Areas around deserts not as populated

22. Some Generalizations
90% of the world’s population is above the equator, 66% in the mid-latitudes (includes US and Europe)
50% of the population lives on 5% of the available land.
66% of the world’s populations live within 300 miles of the ocean.

23. Population

24. World Population Growth Through History
Billions 12 11
2100 10 9
Modern
Age 8
Old
Stone
Bronze
Iron
Middle 7
Age
New Stone Age
Age
Age
Ages 6
2000
Future 5 4
1975 3
1950 2
1900 1
Black Death —
The Plague
1800
1+ million
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
years
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C. 1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/
scientific revolutions – then it exploded

25. Population Growth--the Problem
Food Supply
Status of Women
Health Issues--not enough nutrients in food, lack of medical help
Environmental Issues--deforestation, erosion, technology/chemicals

26. Global Population Growth Is Driven by Developing Countries.
World Population (in Billions):
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

27. Sparks to Population Growth
Agricultural Revolution
Industrial Revolution
Urbanization and Sanitation
Advances in Medicine
Conquest and Colonization of New Lands
Developing Countries

28. Checks on Population Growth
Epidemics and Plagues --Bubonic Plague , 1/4 of the population killed, England loses 4 million people
Famines
Potato Famine in Ireland
India and China
Wars
Natural Decrease

29. Demographic Equations
Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate +/– Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase (%)
Population Doubling Time (yrs.) =
70  Rate of Natural Increase

32. Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
Palestinian Territories
Fertility Rate
7.39
7.00
6.43
6.46
5.99
5.57
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.
U.K.
Total fertility rate
1.72
1.80
1.81
1.78
1.70
1.66
Africa
Fertility Rate
6.60
6.45
6.11
5.67
5.26
4.97

33. Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

34. G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

35. H. Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
Many developing countries have cut population growth
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

36. I. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
In , infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today.
Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years.
Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.
L.E increase vary with region –
greatest gains in the developing nations

38. Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

41. World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!
Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
East Asia 1.9 billion China billion
South Asia 1.7 billion India billion
Europe 825 million U.S million
SE Asia 600million Indonesia 310 million
Brazil 246million

42. D. Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change,
Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000.
All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.
Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and China remain stagnant

43. G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

44. Birth Control Programs
One family/one child policies
Female infanticide
Social compensation fees
Sterilization
Loss of status
Termination healthcare/food coupons
Free birth control
Increased literacy

46. K. Age Distribution of the World’s Population
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Age
0-4
Male
Female
Male
Female
Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.
Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.
Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.
Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.
Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly different

47. World Death Rates Infectious diseases Degenerative diseases
HIV/AIDS
SARS
Degenerative diseases
Obesity
Tobacco use
Epidemiology
Epidemiological transition

48. Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

49. Rates of Natural Increase

50. Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase
Doubling Time (yrs.)
Example (1998)
0.50
140
Ireland
0.60
120
United States
1.00 70
China
2.00 35
Costa Rica
3.50 20
Yemen
Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling time (inverse relationship)

51. 2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650)
1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) …
2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs.
(>6 billion currently)

52. Doubling Times
The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.
World = 50
U.S. = 34
MDC = 543
LDC = 40
Honduras = 22
Belize = 19
Denmark = 700
Russia = never?

58. Demographic Transition Model

59. The Demographic Transition Model

61. 1. Stage One Growth
Pre-Industrial economy – Crude death rate and birth rate fluctuate freely due mainly to famine, but also war and disease

62. 2. Stage Two Growth
Early Industrial Economy - Industrialization leads death rates down w/better food access due to agricultural advances, while birth rate level off at a stable rate

63. 3. Stage Three Growth
Developed Industrial Economy - Birth rates plummet along with death rates as overall population climbs.
Most people survive to old age so no need to replace with babies

64. Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple
4. Stage Four Growth
Developed Economies - The post-industrial economy sees birth and death rates converging as population growth levels off and stabilizes.
Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple

65. Demographic Transition Theory
4 Stages:
High Birth Rate, High Death Rate
High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate
Declining Birth Rate, Low Death Rate
Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate

66. Demographic Transition Model
Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
Crude birth/death rate high
Fragile, but stable, population
Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)
Lower death rates
Infant mortality rate falls
Natural increase very high
Stage three (attitudes change)
Indicative of richer developed countries
Higher standards of living/education
Crude birth rate finally falls
Stage four
Crude birth/death rates low
Population stable
Populations aging

67. Problems with the Demographic Transition Model
based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

68. Population Shift

69. Overpopulation
When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

70. Jean Antoine Condorcet
(1743 – 1794)
predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family
believed that society was perfectable

71. Thomas Malthus
Food Production increases linearly while population increases geometrically— i.e. the world will not have enough food to support itself 

72. But wait! Technology Intervenes Is Malthus wrong for the future?
Malthus cont…
But wait! Technology Intervenes
Is Malthus wrong for the future?
A problem we will never escape--population will outdo technology

73. Thomas Malthus on Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
Assumptions
Populations grow exponentially.
Food supply grows arithmetically.
Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

74. Population J-Curve

75. Population and the Environment
I = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Population-influenced environmental problems:
Global Warming
Habitat Loss / Endangered Species
Resource Depletion
Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

76. Population and Resource Consumption

78. Population Policy: Making National Decisions

79. The Population Bomb!

80. What is Population a policy?
The decisions made by a national gov. to alter growth rates through legal and social means

81. Tools for Population goals
Education & Propaganda

82. China’s Propaganda Posters
Carry out family planning
Implement the basic national policy
Do a good job in family planning
to promote economic development

83. Financial incentives
Parents can be rewarded or punished through taxes, tuition or housing as in China’s One Child Policy
Many countries are trying this some to boost their populations, others to decrease it.

84. Women’s Approach
By empowering LDC women to financial success, cycles of large families can sometimes be broken.
A common U.N strategy in Africa

85. Family Planning
Through Public Health Services, counseling, contraception and even abortion can be made available.
These programs have a mixed record based on cultural values

86. Foreign Aid
Financial and technical aid are often made available by the U.N or MDCs.
Problems arise when money or the programs themselves are discontinued

87. Coercion
Enforced sterilization or abortion are rarely successful and often have the opposite effect.
India’s enforced sterilization in the 1970s was a disaster